TPGK faces aggro

[Fantam]

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i think a c/r getting 3-bet here by a pf 3-bettor is pretty reliable. of course, not everything in poker is 100%. but that's a pretty damn strong signal.

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In theory (at least) CO may 3-bet JJ-99, AK, maybe for info maybe to get a cheap show-down, protect agaisnt BTN thinking we are weakish or whatever reason he may have. How often does he need to do this before CR/fold turn UI if 3-bet becomes a loser?

What I want to know is if you have analyzed how certain we need to be (95%, 90%, 80%, or something else?) we are beaten before the line u suggested becoes correct.

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As this thread has been nominated for the digest (and I have only just seen it), I thought that I would attempt the requested maths.

It should not be a mistake for hero to call if his flop c/r is 3-bet. Thats because he will be getting 18:1 to improve assuming that the button also calls.

So, we should consider what % of the time that it would be a mistake for hero to c/f the turn UI to villain's assumed turn bet.

If both hero and button call down to a turn and river bet from villain, then :

Hero's EV = (9 + 6)*p - 2. Where p = probability hero wins.

If only hero calls down, then :

Hero's EV = (9 + 4)*p - 2.

So for hero's EV to be +ive. his probability of winning needs to be > 13% if button also calls down, and > 15% otherwise.

Or lets just say that hero needs to be about 85% or more certain that he is beaten by villain to make c/f the turn UI correct.

Please note that I have not tried to take into account the small chance of hero improving to the best hand on the river if he is behind UI on the turn.

[arch_angel]

nice post fantam