Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[Drag]

@ flight2q

The analysis that you provide is not of a statistical nature. There is no such thing as 'running over the table' when we are talking about statistics.

A STATISTICAL way of analysis should look something like:

80% VPIP player normally (from analysis of statistical evidence for all the known players) is going to have a negative winrate of less than -20PTBB/100. Now, take a very high standard deviation of 100PTBB/100 (I know only of people with SD = 50-60 PTBB/100). The probability of winning 200PTBB/100 over 300 hands with -20PTBB/100 mean and SD=100PTBB/100 is less than 0.1%. (I guess we can do the exact math in this case.)
Add a similar stats for limit poker, i.e. too high winrate for that style over a large sample. Add evidence for tournaments: a probability to win a tournament with 100 entrants is about 1/100, a probability for a bad player playing 80VPIP style to win a tournament is much less than 1/1000.

Now you have to multiply probabilities: taking like 10^-3 for NL, 10^-3 for Limit; 10^-3 for tournaments, and you get 10^-9 as a VERY CONSERVATIVE estimation that a player in question got lucky. When we increase the number of hands the probability drops even further.

Then you can add the evidence from individual hands, circumstantial evidence about chip dumping (which is not of a statistical nature BTW) to come to a very solid conclusion that cheating took place.

[xTheKidx]

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so im having a session on abs where this guy munchkin cat is running like god against me and ofc my first thought was omg its doubledrags new account!

does anyone know who that is

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He just AIMed me and asked to do 1k swap ABS for Full Tilt...I declined because I was in the middle of a session...says he has 50k+ in his account

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Yo, g-p...when I kept insisting that munchkin cat send first he just wouldn't do the swap and now he was AIMing me to allow him to chip dump to me and telling me that he was going to chip dump like 50k to a friend later...add munchkin-cat to the list of megasuspicious/shady fools..AIM EC172

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Im munchkin_cat on ABS. I did NOT IM you, so whoever did is not me. And I'm def not shady.

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Explain CALLING with JT as the nuts on the river?

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I would like to know who AIMed other Players if not Munchkin_Cat

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He AIMed my roommate now too who also plays on ABS...trying to chipdump

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So who AIMed you and your Roommate if you both were sure,that it was Munchkin_Cat but he said,that he didnt.
That doesnt make Sense.

[Wolfskin]

I did some statistical research on what's possible in 100 hand spans and 500 hands spans and what's not. The statistical analysis I use are based on the normal curve of distribution. The data used is of one of the best and most respected players on pokerstars in the 25/50 NL game against tough competition with a sample size of 13400 heads-up hands winning approximately 3.8 bb/100 using overbet-shove techniques.

100 hand intervalls:
Mean: 3.49bb/100
Standard Deviation: 65.08bb/100

Results:
for 100 hand spans using 13400 hands the confidence interval (usually you use 95%, that means in 97.5% you will be below this win rate over 100 hands) is:
90%: 103.65bb/100
95%: 124.07bb/100
99%: 164.15bb/100
99.999%: 283.99bb/100
99.99999999999%: 480.77bb/100
or 1:20000000000000 or 1:2E13

500 hand intervalls:
Mean: 1.9bb/100 (different because I only use 13000 hands)
Standard Deviation: 29.32bb/100

confidence intervall for 500 hand spans using a 13000 hand sample:
90%: 46.32bb/100
95%: 55.56bb/100
99%: 73.62bb/100
99.9999999999999999999999: 299.09bb/100
or 1:2E24

[Python49]

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[dragonystic]

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Results:
for 100 hand spans using 13400 hands the confidence interval (usually you use 90% or 95%, that means in 90% you will be below this win rate over 100 hands) is:
90%: 103.65bb/100
95%: 124.07bb/100
99%: 164.15bb/100
99.999%: 283.99bb/100
99.99999999999%: 480.77bb/100
or 1:10000000000000 or 1:10E14


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so its 1 in a trillion that someone could run at 480.77bb/100 over 100 hands? im not too well versed in Standard Deviation. i apologize if that is not what this number means.

[Python49]

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[Python49]

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First off, this guy plays better than people are giving him credit for

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Stopped reading here. Have you even read the other threads? Were you not around shortly after the threads popped up when he jumped on AP to start dumping money by calling on the river in a desperate attempt to cover his tracks? Yeah, he plays good alright, calling all ins on the river with high card for huge bets.

[flight2q]

Drag, just so you know, Doubledrag's standard deviation was around 260 PTBB/100 in that 190-hand sample, and he won about 470 PTBB. Even if you think the loss rate should be -20 PTBB/100, the result is within 2 standard deviations.

[mntbikr15]

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Official AP Statement:

"i HAve lookked at the hand histerys end evaryting lookz normal, case cllosd."

Rinaldogeronimo Lopezcincuentaseis Jr. , AP Customer Service Team

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Lol, not sure why but this made me laugh pretty hard

[g-p]

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Calling 2800 into a 700 pot on the flop with king high and no draw and somehow being ahead means

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although his call was fine given pot size, he was not ahead