Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

[PRE]

I'm not sure if you should be regarded as a retard for wanting to invest in China, but I am sure that you should be regarded one for deciding to long or short a stock based on P/E alone. Let me know how that strategy ends up working for you.

[mindflayer]

I import a (non food) good from China to resell in Canada.
12 months ago I did not mention the goods were made in China as part of the sales pitch. 6 months ago, it WAS. Now again I do not mention were the goods come from (unless the customer asks.)
I have a sort of Wal Mart type policy now. Everyone knows why the pencils and plastic rulers are so cheap; they are made in China, all you have to do is look or ask. If you don't ask, your just happy it is cheap.

What follows is my opinion.

China is in a state of intense change, almost a post 2nd world war Japan like change. Japan turned all its war production into manufacturing and for the first 5 years all they could produce was 2nd rate radios/televisions and motorcycles. 50-60 years later, there are no more radios, but all people think now when they hear Sony, and Honda is Quality.

Fool or Genius?
Would you have invested in a second rate radio maker like Sony, or a second rate motorcycle maker Honda 60 years ago?!?
I am at least willing to take a look.

[ItalianFX]

Let me give you some advice based on experience.

Shorting a stock because YOU think the PE is too high or that you think it SHOULD go down is a losing proposition.

I think to make some better decisions, blueman, you need to do a little more analysis.

Also, there is no such thing as easy money.

[scott1]

I wouldn't bet against a state owned company. At least not without some very good reason why. High P/E isn't that.

[hanster]

blue,
How do you plan to invest in China, exactly? Are they listed in American exchanges? Also, if they're listed in the Chinese exchange you cannot short any stock. Investing in Chinese stocks are amazing and definitely not dumb; since I arrived in Shanghai at the end of June until now the entire index jumped from 3500 to 5500 and I saw my family portfolio jumped somewhere around 30% in that time frame. Everyone that I've met during this trip invests and all thinks this type of growth will only last until the Olympics next year, thus leading to a almost highway robbery like investment trend where everyone is dumping his and his wife's second cousin's savings into the market.

Invest in China, but do more research first.

mindflyer,
I'm interested in what you're doing, as I will probably get into import/export soon after college and a couple of years of experience.

[mindflayer]

Currently I am a Canadian manufacturer, but recently met up with an importer who was willing to bring in my product. I have the customers and he has the cheap supply.
The #1 problem is lead time. The North American standard for delivery time is 2 weeks. It takes me about 10 days to make and deliver the product, but it takes 5-6 to get it here from China depending if the ship has to make other port stops + clearing port customs.

Send me a private message if you want to know more.