$11 NLTRN - facing a weird river bet

[pokercurious]

Poker Stars, $11 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds, 2 Players

Hero (SB): 1,335
BB: 1,665

Pre-Flop: (75) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to 100</font>
BB calls 50

Flop: (200) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks
<font color="red">Hero bets 100</font>
BB calls 100

Turn: (400) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [ Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
BB checks
Hero checks

River: (400) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [ 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets 600</font>
Hero...

Anybody ever not fold this? What do the conditions have to be - i.e. reads, history, etc.?

[Kharlog]

You need pretty good reads on him if you are going to call this river.

PS. Raise a bit more on preflop (to 125-175). Minraise is almost never correct. Maybe when stacks are 8-12xBB but then push/fold game is correct in most situations.

[pokercurious]

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You need pretty good reads on him if you are going to call this river.

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What exactly would those be? What would you have to have seen from somebody to make this not a fold?

[ QUOTE ]
PS. Raise a bit more on preflop (to 125-175). Minraise is almost never correct. Maybe when stacks are 8-12xBB but then push/fold game is correct in most situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to always raise to 125-150 at 25/50. Various posters here have recommended minraising &lt;30BB - I was intrigued, so I've been giving it a shot. I find that people will call the minraise with a much wider range of hands, and seem to view that call as less of a commitment than calling a larger raise. Half pot cbets almost always take down the pot.

So far in this experiment, it's making my decisions easier and seems pretty profitable.

[Kharlog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need pretty good reads on him if you are going to call this river.

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What exactly would those be? What would you have to have seen from somebody to make this not a fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

If he tends to bluff a lot with overbets on the river then call. If he overbets river a ton and you don't know if he bluffs or not then give it a shot and call. It's profitable on average and keeps the villain from bluffing at you so much. Those are just some simple reasons but you may be able to deduce some other reasons to call this river. Metagame is a complex thing and cannot be thoroughly analyzed by an outsider.

[ChicagoRy]

If anything, I'd rather see a cbet of 120-125 rather than PF be 125.

Anyways, this kind of overbet tends to be a huge hand in my experience, and I would stay away.

There really aren't any draws on the flop and I'd think you would want some sort of bluffing history on villain because I don't think you have the odds to call this kind of bet.

[pushing22]

I would fold without a huge read. One guy I saw river a huge hand and bet 1/4 pot. I called and lost. About 10 hands later the river completed a draw and he bet pot. I called and he had air. Unless you have seen something like that you need to fold.

[phos4]

I see these bets all the time at these limits. They insta bet Pot when checked turn and it really is annoying.
Would you call with A4? A9?

[Landonfan]

I don't see how A4 or A9 is any different than AT. His range is super polarized here.

I fold this unless I've seen villain float really light before.

[pokercurious]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how A4 or A9 is any different than AT. His range is super polarized here.

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I agree with this. I think you see a Q or a flush a lot here.

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this unless I've seen villain float really light before.

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Here is where the real question is. How do you know you're being floated when pots generally don't get to showdown? (Cbet-call-check-check-bet-fold is a very common line.) It's obvious when villain calls the first 5 cbets and/or when villain's been doing things like consistently crazy overbets.

During the hand, I had a strong feeling that he was bluffing, based on the rhythm of play and villain's occasionally doing some strange things.

I'm ok with the fold here, just wondering how people go about getting the 'strong reads' that so many posters wouldn't make moves without.

[pokercurious]

@ChicagoRy:

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If anything, I'd rather see a cbet of 120-125 rather than PF be 125.

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, do you find 120-125 folds out more hands than 100?

Granted, my sample size isn't huge, so I'll defer to your experience, but at $11's, (and seemingly regardless of opponent type) people tend to play back more at the 125-type cbet. And it's an easy adjustment to make when somebody starts popping you back light.