river bluff against flush draw

[1fineday]

Villain is 78/17/0.75 Went to SD 40, total hands 56
Is river bet good?

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $15.20
SB: $23.40
BB: $29.47
UTG: $38.43
Hero (CO): $38.68

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.25</font>, UTG calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG folds

Results: $7.35 Pot
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $9.99 (+$6.49 NET)

[Schiester]

I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.

That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.

Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.

[icheckcallu]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.

That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.

Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.

[/ QUOTE ]


WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af.

[Schiester]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.

That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.

Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.

[/ QUOTE ]


WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af.

[/ QUOTE ]

villans honesty (so to speak) is a function of VPIP vs AF.

ie. a villan with VPIP 5 + AF 10 is probably not bs'ing as often as one thats 35 + AF 3

So .. with a VPIP of 5 you'd expect one to bet out quite often rather than flat call given the fact the the range dictated by a low VPIP is very strong.

This guy is playing 78% of cards dealt and betting out on 75% of those hands after the flop... kinda fishy? Noone hits that often (given sample size is tiny and AF is not statistically significant).

[icheckcallu]

.72af doesnt = 75% betting post flop LOLOLOLOLOL

[Schiester]

.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!

72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72.

[Schiester]

[ QUOTE ]
.72af doesnt = 75% betting post flop LOLOLOLOLOL

[/ QUOTE ]

Lose the attitude please. This is friendly forum and I'm just trying to learn.

[wingchunflush]

obviously it worked. Want a cookie?

[icheckcallu]

[ QUOTE ]
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!

72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72.

[/ QUOTE ]
thats not how u calculate AF. And no he is very loooooooooooose passive with almost 0 aggression. You can

[Micro Donk]

we beat a flush draw