i played this perfectly, right?

[bilbo-san]

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We're calling a PSB against someone who we are reasonably certain will not be slowing down on the turn as they have an overpair.


[/ QUOTE ]

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How do we justify the odds to call here? Really think the implied odds are that high?


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Do you often post the answer to a question before asking it?

[Peleus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

We're calling a PSB against someone who we are reasonably certain will not be slowing down on the turn as they have an overpair.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

How do we justify the odds to call here? Really think the implied odds are that high?


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you often post the answer to a question before asking it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are all your other 4000 posts this useless?

Sorry for trying to get some discussion going in SSNL, obviously its not the place for it.

[herbstl]

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My 2c at least, I know everyone here doesn't agree with me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with u [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Maybe I am a big nit (I think I am) but I don't want to play 45s against an fishy limp-RR (PF call is IMO first mistake)- this is always AA,KK - on the flop I don't call a PSB even if I know he will stack off with an Overpair in any Case - as Peleus said - if an Ace hits you maybe can't get more money in the pot and your call on the flop was bad. If he has QQ a K and an A would do the same - moreover I think this play is marginal and doesn't decide if your a big winner or a looser in this game.

[RAHZero]

Since people in this thread can't do math:

Let's give hero 8 outs on the flop, he's about 17.8% to hit on the turn. Let's assume hero always has to fold the turn if he misses his draw, and always stacks villain when he hits one of his 8 outs.

82.2% of the time, hero loses $30 (his flop call) = -$24.66
17.8% of the time hero wins $193.8 ($39 pot on flop + villain's $30 bet + $124.80 that villain has behind) = $34.50

Total EV = $9.84

Seems like a pretty clear call, especially considering villain sometimes checks the turn, or we pick up more outs and can call the turn, or he doesn't bet enough on the turn.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at the implied odds on the flop.

You have 8 outs to the flush. (8 because 1 is either in villains hand, or will make his full house if it comes, i.e. as results given a Kh comes). We can assume this without knowing results if we're sure we're up against an over pair, we won't know exactly which card will make the full, but one of them will.

That means we have to win on the next card, or as has been discussed chances are we can't continue. 8/47 outs = 17.02% chance of winning on the next card.

Lets ASSUME we are going to capture ALL of villains stack if we hit the next card (i.e. Implied odds best case). Villain has $124.80 left behind after he completes his flop action. That means we're calling $30 to win the pot (currently $39) plus his flop bet $30, plus his remaining stack, for a total of $193.80. 30/193.80 = 15.48% required to call.

Now admittedly this odds show that we have 1.54% edge on calling here, so its a very marginal call. But thats some big assumptions. Who's to say that if the Ah comes villain will stack off, change that one out and suddenly it turns a 1.54% call into a 0.60% mistake. Obviously these are very small percentages and the calling line is very close to the folding line, but I don't think its a good enough assumption to say we're going to capture all of villains stack every time enough to make this profitable.

My 2c at least, I know everyone here doesn't agree with me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

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I did this once before but deleted it, cuz effed it up cuz I'm retarded. Im bored and suck at math so im making myself do it again. (its also late, so there is a good probability I effed it up again, and I prolly should have spent this time doing something productive like masturbating) This is the EV of the flop call assuming he always stacks off when we push and he has QQ+

there are 12 combos of KK and QQ (ill do AA in a minute cuz its a little dif) 6 with a heart and 6 without.

The ones without a heart we win $194 when we hit our flush and he misses his fullhouse on the river so,

(6/18)*(8/45)*(42/44)*($194) = $10.47

we lose $30 (our flop call) when we miss our flush, one time we lose $154 when we hit our flush but he hits his FH and we lose when we hit our flush but he rivers his FH, so

(6/18)*((36/45)*(-$30)+(1/45)*(-$154)+(8/45)*(2/44)*(-$154)) = -$9.56

When he has a heart in his hand we win when we hit our flush and he doesnt hit his Flush or Fullhouse redraws. Depending on the heart we hit on the turn, he wont have as many outs, because some cards give us a straight flush, so

(6/18)*((2/45)*(37/44)*($194)+(2/45)*(36/44)*($194)+(4/45)*(35/44)*(194)) = $9.34

and just like before, we lose 30 when we wiff the turn and lose 154 when we hit but he outdraws us, so

(6/18)*((37/45)*(-$30)+(2/45)*(7/44)*(-$154)+(2/45)*(8/44)*(-$154)*(4/45)*(9/44)*(-$154) = -$9.94

now when he has AA its slightly diff because the straight flush redraws are a little diff, but there are 6 combos of AA 3 with a heart 3 without. When he doesnt have a heart we win when we hit our turn card and he misses river, so

(3/18)*(8/45)*(42/44)*($194) = $5.49

and lose when we wiff or when we hit and he hits, or when we hit and he outdraws, so

(3/18)*((36/45)*(-$30)+(1/45)*(-$154)+(8/45)*(42/44)*(-$154) = -$4.77

and this is for the 3 combos when he has a heart and we win

(3/18)*(8/45)*(42/44)*($194) = $5.49

and for when we lose

(3/18)*((37/45)*(-$30)+(1/45)*(7/44)*(-$154)+(2/45)*(8/44)*(-$154)+(4/45)*(9/44)*(-$154)) = -$4.87

all that added together gives our flop call an EV of $2.16. And thats assuming he has QQ+. If you throw in AK or some retarded stuff its obviously going to go alot higher. So its clearly a +EV call

[herbstl]

all your math is correct but do you always stack the fish if you hit and he doesn't imrpove to a FH ?

[riske]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[scallop]

Re: i played this perfectly, right?

Yes

[Bulletproof Monk]

[ QUOTE ]
Your initial raise seem a bit over the top with 5-high.

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are you srsly suggesting 45s should never be played this way? or are you saying that it should be raised less than 50% of the time in optimal strategy?

[Chicago Twister]

Fold preflop heads up against a loose passive's LRR. The initial raise was fine.