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#1
11-11-2007, 02:28 AM
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Which AAxx hands to raise out of the blinds?
Average low limit live game with 20 people seeing the flop.
Which AAxx hands have enough of an equity edge to raise out of the blinds for value? I'm assuming suitedness matters a lot here... 
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#3
11-11-2007, 06:26 AM
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Re: Which AAxx hands to raise out of the blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
i wouldn't think about equity so much as which hands are more likely to make playable hands on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think that there would be a significant difference between the two.
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#4
11-11-2007, 08:33 AM
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Re: Which AAxx hands to raise out of the blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
Average low limit live game with 20 people seeing the flop. Which AAxx hands have enough of an equity edge to raise out of the blinds for value? I'm assuming suitedness matters a lot here... [/ QUOTE ]Hi Niediam - You tell me where to draw the line. Following are simulated win totals for 211 double ace hands. d means double suited s means two cards in same suit including an ace s- means two cards in same suit not including an ace s白 means three cards in same suit n means rainbow (four different suits) For all s hands shown, the ace is the same suit as the lowest card (but it would not make much difference if the ace were the same suit as the middle card). Results are all for 10,000 runs against eight non-folding random hands. (In other words, a different random hand was simulated as dealt to each of eight different table positions 10,000 times). The first column is the hand, the second column is high only win sub-total, the third column is low only win sub-total, the fourth column is scoop sub-total, the fifth column is total of second, third and fourth columns. For the second and third columns each solo win is counted as 0.5, each a two way tie is counted as 0.25, each three way tie is counted as 1/6, and each four way tie is counted as 0.125. All values are rounded off to the nearest whole number. In the case of exact halves, the numbers are rounded to the nearest even number. If the simulations were re-run, it is expected that the totals would change somewhat, but not substantially. 1,111 is average for a nine handed 10,000 run simulation. In a real game, obviously all eight opponents who are dealt hands will not continue to the showdown. How many opponents do continue to the showdown depends on the actual hands dealt, the flop cards, the turn card, the river card, the betting, and how the opponents interact. If the simulations were run against a different number of opponents, the relative order would change somewhat. If the simulations were run against different groups or mixtures of opponent tendencies, the relative order would change even more. Note that the worst starting hand on this list, AA89n, would not be the worst hand on a one-on-one list of the same hands. Also note that if you raise before the flop against Chester Milktoast with AA89n, you have a better chance of stealing the pot, or winning after the flop with a continuation bet than if you raise before the flop with an even better hand against Bulldog Doubter. You tell me where to draw the line. AA23d.....361+1520+1325=3206 AA24d.....405+1364+1279=3048 AA23s.....314+1599+1016=2929 AA34d.....424+1189+1290=2903 AA25d.....441+1225+1198=2864 AA22d.....516+1164+1131=2811 AA23s白.....271+1601+920=2792 AA24s.....454+1385+916=2755 AA35d.....487+1063+1175=2725 AA33d.....574+964+1167=2705 AA2Kd.....574+1034+1065=2673 AA26d.....473+1117+1081=2671 AA24s白.....325+1506+838=2669 AA23s-.....240+1675+736=2651 AA2Jd.....556+1032+1053=2641 AA2Qd.....555+1026+1056=2637 AA2Td.....573+1027+1033=2633 AA23n.....253+1685+686=2624 AA34s.....372+1317+931=2620 AA25s.....364+1340+912=2616 AA22s.....485+1232+853=2570 AA27d.....499+1023+1038=2560 AA36d.....504+947+1103=2554 AA3Qd.....594+860+1077=2531 AA3Jd.....608+873+1046=2527 AA29d.....544+1032+944=2520 AA45d.....510+872+1125=2507 AA3Td.....556+885+1044=2485 AA44d.....600+742+1142=2484 AA25s白.....346+1292+845=2483 AA28d.....515+930+1033=2478 AA3Kd.....592+876+1008=2476 AA24s-.....291+1500+683=2474 AA35s.....415+1153+872=2440 AA46d.....585+762+1068=2415 AA33s.....492+1031+888=2411 AA2Ts.....458+1069+883=2410 AA2Qs.....440+1125+843=2408 AA37d.....555+838+1013=2406 AA2Js.....461+1097+844=2402 AA2Ks.....466+1091+844=2401 AA39d.....537+843+1002=2382 AA24n.....191+1548+641=2380 AA26s.....394+1180+785=2359 AA4Kd.....610+670+1045=2325 AA25s-.....318+1365+626=2309 AA34s-.....335+1306+667=2308 AA38d.....524+797+975=2296 AA25n.....316+1392+583=2291 AA34n.....316+1334+640=2290 AA45s.....422+969+898=2289 AA4Td.....599+689+992=2280 AA36s.....419+1008+843=2270 AA4Jd.....604+684+980=2268 AA3Ts.....495+928+843=2266 AA29s.....381+1106+770=2257 AA4Qd.....604+687+960=2251 AA22n.....422+1317+498=2237 AA3Ks.....475+925+828=2228 AA3Qs.....465+901+857=2223 AA27s.....409+1033+762=2204 AA47d.....582+673+949=2204 AA3Js.....463+921+818=2202 AA55d.....641+508+1037=2186 AA44s.....522+811+845=2178 AA45s白.....420+927+811=2158 AA28s.....422+993+736=2151 AA48d.....567+646+928=2141 AA49d.....572+684+882=2138 AA35s-.....342+1138+654=2134 AA39s.....454+938+716=2108 AA35n.....325+1175+600=2100 AA38s.....433+836+812=2081 AA37s.....427+870+774=2071 AA4Ks.....498+713+856=2067 AA2Kn.....376+1156+534=2066 AA46s.....447+818+801=2066 AA33n.....456+1069+539=2064 AA2Jn.....382+1137+542=2061 AA2Qn.....382+1169+504=2055 AA26n.....307+1231+508=2046 AA2Tn.....371+1147+508=2026 AA4Ts.....487+719+802=2008 AA4Js.....489+731+782=2002 AA66d.....666+305+1013=1984 AAKKd.....794+0+1186=1980 AA45s-.....371+959+644=1974 AA4Qs.....493+726+741=1960 AA29n.....360+1172+416=1948 AA3Kn.....383+993+568=1944 AA55s.....561+567+812=1940 AA3Jn.....405+1001+533=1939 AA3Tn.....408+991+525=1924 AAQQd.....784+0+1137=1921 AA45n.....340+981+599=1920 AAJJd.....807+0+1113=1920 AA27n.....349+1125+445=1919 AA47s.....486+709+713=1908 AA36n.....335+1055+510=1900 AA5Js.....516+531+743=1889 AA3Qn.....401+960+527=1888 AA49s.....456+725+688=1869 AA57s.....508+530+718=1856 AA28n.....342+1047+450=1839 AA48s.....468+677+681=1826 AA44n.....455+808+561=1824 AA5Ts.....521+531+769=1821 AATTd.....800+0+1019=1819 AA5Ks.....532+534+744=1810 AA68d.....639+309+854=1802 AA6Kd.....643+304+851=1798 AA37n.....354+959+467=1780 AA46n.....371+866+538=1775 AA39n.....348+954+453=1755 AAKKs.....656+0+1091=1747 AA4Tn.....395+809+528=1732 AA38n.....356+901+450=1707 AA77d.....760+103+844=1707 AA4Qn.....394+750+560=1704 AATJd.....809+0+884=1693 AA4Kn.....391+763+522=1676 AATQd.....782+0+893=1675 AATKd.....771+0+904=1675 AAJKd.....781+0+893=1674 AA66s.....559+352+759=1670 AAQQs.....660+0+1008=1668 AAQKd.....738+0+922=1660 AA4Jn.....382+751+523=1656 AA88d.....765+8+879=1652 AAJQd.....762+0+894=1636 AA99d.....765+0+868=1633 AA47n.....384+731+517=1632 AA55n.....449+582+579=1610 AATTs.....672+0+931=1603 AAJJs.....646+0+956=1602 AA49n.....365+776+457=1598 AA78d.....677+95+820=1592 AA48n.....376+715+498=1589 AA56n.....397+655+531=1583 AA9Jd.....814+0+747=1561 AA67s.....550+339+669=1558 AA79d.....697+92+758=1547 AA5Tn.....403+559+569=1531 AA6Ks.....501+316+696=1513 AA89d.....754+10+746=1510 AA5Qn.....385+544+572=1501 AA5Kn.....386+577+536=1499 AA5Jn.....388+547+548=1483 AA68s.....540+309+631=1480 AA69s.....526+324+610=1460 AA68s白.....482+319+638=1439 AAKKn.....506+0+932=1438 AA77s.....609+108+721=1437 AAJKs.....610+0+827=1437 AA7Ts.....603+102+726=1431 AAQQn.....481+0+945=1426 AA57n.....412+534+478=1424 AATJs.....662+0+757=1419 AATQs.....615+0+803=1418 AA58n.....390+539+488=1417 AAQKs.....616+0+800=1416 AA99s.....575+0+827=1402 AA8Ts.....636+16+740=1392 AA59n.....386+550+441=1377 AAJQs.....617+0+758=1375 AAJJn.....503+0+868=1371 AA66n.....470+383+508=1361 AA88s.....630+13+708=1351 AA7Qs.....519+101+728=1348 AA7Ks.....496+104+736=1336 AATKs.....587+0+736=1323 AA68s-.....418+339+559=1316 AATTn.....530+0+773=1303 AA7Js.....503+103+684=1290 AA9Ts.....649+0+634=1283 AA79s.....560+113+606=1279 AA6Kn.....408+350+516=1274 AA6Jn.....379+359+522=1260 AA78s.....545+108+599=1252 AA6Tn.....401+349+493=1243 AA89s.....623+15+601=1239 AA6Qn.....401+355+477=1233 AA67n.....409+354+456=1219 AA68n.....418+329+469=1216 AA99n.....439+0+762=1201 AA77n.....494+115+541=1150 AA89s白.....585+13+543=1141 AA69n.....394+337+404=1135 AATJn.....503+0+621=1124 AAJQn.....476+0+647=1123 AAJKn.....464+0+658=1122 AATQn.....454+0+650=1104 AA7Tn.....438+115+539=1092 AAQKn.....442+0+627=1069 AATKn.....459+0+609=1068 AA9Tn.....508+0+548=1056 AA88n.....512+14+528=1054 AA8Jn.....458+13+569=1040 AA8Tn.....484+15+535=1034 AA7Qn.....388+124+516=1028 AA89s-.....487+19+512=1018 AA7Kn.....393+109+508=1010 AA7Jn.....398+105+502=1005 AA79n.....427+115+455=997 AA78n.....441+113+429=983 AA9Jn.....463+0+512=975 AA9Kn.....399+0+557=956 AA8Qn.....408+11+532=951 AA9Qn.....430+0+520=950 AA8Kn.....407+15+524=946 AA89n.....451+14+455=920 Buzz
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#7
11-12-2007, 01:41 PM
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Re: Which AAxx hands to raise out of the blinds?
Thanks Buzz, this is really good stuff. I have a couple of questions, though:
1. In a loose game, there are always players who still will play reasonable hands. With 8 people seeing the flop, one could assume that there are no aces left in the deck. How would AAxx perform in such case? 2. I am looking at the "high only" numbers and I am somewhat surprised to see that AAKKd (best omaha high hand) is winning less than a hand like AAJ9d. Is that due to the normal fluctuations with the simulation, or is that really the case? By the way, what simulation software do you use?
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#8
11-12-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: Which AAxx hands to raise out of the blinds?
[ QUOTE ]
1. In a loose game, there are always players who still will play reasonable hands. With 8 people seeing the flop, one could assume that there are no aces left in the deck. [/ QUOTE ]Hi Tilt_Monkey - I do think that's sometimes a valid assumption, but it depends on your opponents as a group. Even with 8 people seeing the flop I don't think you can necessarily assume there are no aces left in the deck. At least five of your opponents are playing ace-less starting hands. Why not six or seven? But at any rate, anyone seeing the flop naturally wants to continue and is looking for reasons to continue. Exactly what a solid player needs in order to continue depends on the particular cards of the flop, but when 8 people see the flop there's a pretty good chance someone will find a decent reason to continue for high, probably needing only one card to make a straight or better. [ QUOTE ] How would AAxx perform in such case? [/ QUOTE ]Generally poorly. If the flop is paired, solid players will be continuing with sets or flopped full houses. Your opponents will have 28 cards between themselves. If you don't have a card the same rank as the board pair, there's a high probability (~86%) an opponent does. The math: <ul type="square">1-C(43,28)/C(45,28)=0.8626[/list]And in addition, someone might have a pair matching the odd card on the flop. It's unlikely you'll see an ace on the turn or river (p=~8.8%). Bottom line: you have a negative e.v. for playing bare aces when the flop is paired. When seven opponents see the flop and the flop is not paired, opponents will continue with flush draws, flushes, straight draws, straights, sets, and two pairs. All of these are generally better than a pair of aces. With a pair of aces, you'll be drawing for an ace to make trip aces and even when that happens for you, an opponent can end up with a straight or better. Thus with eight of you seeing the flop, unless you catch an ace on the flop or unless at least one other two-card comgination in your hand is working for you, you should probably fold. [ QUOTE ] 2. I am looking at the "high only" numbers and I am somewhat surprised to see that AAKKd (best omaha high hand) is winning less than a hand like AAJ9d. Is that due to the normal fluctuations with the simulation, or is that really the case? [/ QUOTE ]It isn't. AAKKd.....794+0+1186=1980 AA9Jd.....814+0+747=1561 AAKKd is the best high-only hand, as simulated, with a pair of aces. But interestingly, 10,000 deals may not be enough! When I did the simulations for the series of post-flop articles for the 2+2 on-line magazine, I used at least 100,000 deal simulations. I'll run both of those again at 10,000 deals, just to see. I expect the results to be similar, but a little bit different. Here goes: AAKKd.....772+0+1149=1921 AA9Jd.....757+0+764=1521 As you can see, the results are a bit different. I'll run them both at 100,000 deals for Omaha-8. Here goes: AAKKd.....7957+0+12027=19984 AA9Jd.....7755+0+7648=15403 As you can see, the results are about ten times greater than for 10,000 runs. Presumably they're also better values. Simulated for high only (also nine handed) AAKKd.....19+2712=2731 AA9Jd.....65+2196=2261 first column is hand, second column is high splits halved, third column is scoops, fourth column is total. AAKKd is a substantially better hand in Omaha-high than Omaha-8 because there are no splits with low. [ QUOTE ] By the way, what simulation software do you use? [/ QUOTE ]For these I used Wilson software. Buzz
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