[25 NL, 5-handed] Set over set, but can I fold? (long)

bigbb33 · #1 10-15-2006, 04:00 PM

Long post, hope will respond in detail too (though no requirements for length!).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($25.35)
UTG ($23.25)
MP ($20.90)
Button ($26)
SB ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, SB raises to $1.5, Hero calls $1.25, UTG folds, Button folds.

Flop: ($3.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $2.75, Hero raises to $10, SB raises to $23.25, Hero calls $13.25.

Turn: ($50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $50

Going to go through my analysis of the hand:

Been at the table for 5 hands, this villain has folded all. He raised from the small blind to 1.5. This shows more strength than raising from the button, so it cuts down his range.

Range: AA - JJ, AK - AQ

Didn't think about this range when I was sitting down, just thought 'I'll call for set value'.

Anyway flop sets me, AJT. He bets out, possible cont bet. If I look back at his range, It has 6 hands, well 7 or 8 if you consider that AK and AQ are easier to get than AA or JJ. Either way, I'm going to assume that he's a cont better and would bet with anything, especially on this scary flop.

I'm beat by AA and JJ, ahead of KK, QQ, AK, AQ. So what's my move? I'm almost certain I misplayed the raise here, 3.5 betting him and giving me no odds to fold with the set. High probability he'll lay down KK and QQ with the ace on the flop to a raise of his bet, unless he wants to try to risk a set or go for the gutshot. AK and AQ, probably also lay it down as he's behind AJ and AT, and behind AK with AQ, along with JJ and TT of course.

Essentially if i raise his bet I can only see him doing two things: folding with KK, QQ, AK, AQ or maybe calling then checking the turn and giving it away... or raising with AA or JJ sets.

So my goal should be to do what?

A: Raise the minimum amount to get him to reveal his hand, ie raising me all in or calling then pushing big on the turn.
B: Call and see what happens on the turn?

Okay...

Option B seems completely unreasonable as any Q or K will completely screw me over, risking filling a straight or completely a better set. Or it could provide an opportunity to bluff a straight if he has AA or JJ, hmmm... But then I'm putting money into the pot on the flop with the hope that a Q or K will come, and then that only gives me opportunity to bluff at it. Please comment on this option seriously, need help. I don't think it's good though, leaving option A.

Option A... so what is the minimum bet to get him to fold AK, AQ, KK, or QQ? Remembering he bet out 2.75, maybe if I put it up to 7.75 forcing him to put 5 more in? But would he still call with AK or AQ? Maybe 8.75? Sounds better, what do you guys think?

So lets say that I raised his 2.75 flop bet to 8.75, and he shoved all in on me, esesntially like what happened in the hand except I had raised to 10 and put 1.25 more than a 8.75 raise would have committed to the pot.

Would he really shove with KK, QQ, AK, or AQ? Keeping in mind it's 25 NL and my super-early read is that he's tight, I don't think so on the KK or QQ hands, not with the fat ace sitting there. With AK or AQ, again what can he put me on? Ax? Because that's all he's beating, and there's no way he'd put me on that with the big raise...

So the only thing he's likely to shove with is AA or JJ, the top sets. I'll give it, say, a 80% chance he has the higher set and 20% chance he doesnt, thinkign either I'm bluffing, he can bluff me out, or whatever with his AK, AQ, he has enough outs, etc. What do you think of this probability? It's highly subjective and I just thought 'well thats good enough'... how would you calculate this range more exactly or objectively?

Pot odds are... call 12 to contest a 52 pot. Maybe 3.7:1, guessing in my head. Too bad my 80% or 4:1 chance of winning calculating was so subjective, because I really can't rely on it too well here. Seriously need help, what odds would you give to him having the goods or not having the goods, and how would you calculate it? I gave 4:1 (or 80%), but it just 'felt' like a good, roung number.

But still I don't have the odds and should fold, just barely.

--

Helps a lot to write all this out rather than just say 'luckbox, set over set' and move on to the next hand. Got some questions for those who read this far. Most important for anyone nice enough to answer my questions is to go into the 'why' and 'how' rather than just the answer: this hand is unlikely to come up to often, but the principles may, and I need to know the workings and methods that you use to come to your conclusions to be able to grasp the principles.

edit: Question: Do you consider my range I put on him good? Keep in mind it's 25 NL 6-max, and we are playing 5-handed. Looking back over the post it seems as though I can open up the range a bit to account for 5 handed, but the position says no. What do you think?

1. What do you think about what I considered to be my two options on the flop, either raising the minimum to get him to shove (either re-raising my raise of his flop bet, or calling then shoving the turn), or option B of calling him and trying to hit a scare card of K or Q. Do you consider there to be another option, like folding the flop straight out or shoving all in, etc?

2. If you agree that the raise was good on the flop and I should be doing it to get him to fold with the minimum amount invested in the raise, what amount would you think would be good? I said 8.75, what do you think and why?

3. What do you consider my odds of having the best hand at showdown to be on the flop? I gave it 80-20, or 4:1, but it was just a nice round number that I intuitively picked. Keep in mind this is odds I win at showdown, not odds i'm ahead on the flop.

4. Does folding, if I barely have the odds to do so, a bad move as it does more damage to my image than it does to my bankroll? ie, is it worth it to lose $1 on avg on this hand to show that I call stuff, to avoid being bluffed? Is this worth it at 25 NL, or at any stake?

--

Okay thanks for reading all that stuff. I'd love replies, but PLEASE go through your reasoning so I can grasp your methods, rather than just saying 'fold here, you are behind more than ahead' or 'shove always, pre-reload, move to next hand'. Those answers are good but I'd like to know why.

bigbb33

EMc · #2 10-15-2006, 04:15 PM

This seems like a bad beat post on the outside, but you are clearly thinking things through, so lets see what happens. Ill give my thoughts in a few when I read this novel.

Chaos_ult · #3 10-15-2006, 04:46 PM

I think the range you're assigning him is too narrow

I'd say its probably more like 99+, AJs+

in light of that, there's no way i'm folding

ama0330 · #4 10-15-2006, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Been at the table for 5 hands, this villain has folded all. He raised from the small blind to 1.5. This shows more strength than raising from the button, so it cuts down his range.

Range: AA - JJ, AK - AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

No way dude. No way. You have 5 hands on this guy, you simply can't range him like that. Without a read, this raise is essentially meaningless in that it can be so, so many different things. He could be trying to scoop the dead money in the pot, he could be feeling out the table, he could be [insert absolutely any scenario here]. Damn, he could just be an idiot. I think a better range is "any half reasonable hand" - pairs, big aces, suited aces, even suited connectors. Of course, WE all know that this is a stupid, unforgivable play from the small blind. He might too - but without a read you simply can't assume. Be wary, but not afraid.

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't think about this range when I was sitting down, just thought 'I'll call for set value'.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thinking. Wary, but not afraid. I like it.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway flop sets me, AJT. He bets out, possible cont bet. If I look back at his range, It has 6 hands, well 7 or 8 if you consider that AK and AQ are easier to get than AA or JJ. Either way, I'm going to assume that he's a cont better and would bet with anything, especially on this scary flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been over why your range here is too tight, but "this could be anything" is a good train of thought.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm beat by AA and JJ, ahead of KK, QQ, AK, AQ. So what's my move?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are ahead of his range (even though its too narrow) so your objective is to get money into the pot. Do you realise just how far ahead you are? I'll show you...

Board: Jd As Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 70.4521 % 69.87% 00.58% { TdTs }
Hand 2: 29.5479 % 28.97% 00.58% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Get that money in.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost certain I misplayed the raise here, 3.5 betting him and giving me no odds to fold with the set.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is important. At NO point in this hand should you be thinking about folding your set. Just DON'T do it. I think this is the point here - you are overthinking this hand and you must train yourself to realise that sometimes [censored] happens and you'll lose with a very strong hand that you thought for sure was golden.

You are not raising here so that you can fold further down the line - and you should NEVER raise that much of your stack if you simply plan to chuck your hand away to further pressure. If that is the way you are approaching this then just open fold the flop, and log out. You are raising here looking to get it all in - you are raising because you don't want to see another card given the board. I for one think your raise to $10 was ideal.

[ QUOTE ]
High probability he'll lay down KK and QQ with the ace on the flop to a raise of his bet, unless he wants to try to risk a set or go for the gutshot. AK and AQ, probably also lay it down as he's behind AJ and AT, and behind AK with AQ, along with JJ and TT of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again I think this is really not right. The reason I think your read is wrong here is because you have basically just sat down at the table and you know absolutely nothing about your opponent. You really think that your standard 25NL unknown is folding KK/QQ here? I sure as hell don't. And if theres one thing for sure, no WAY is ANY ace folding this flop. Train yourself to adjust your reads to what you know. Acknowledge the possible, but give it a weighting. He COULD have the nuts, but DOES he? How sure can you be after only 5 hands? I think that of all the hands you have mentioned here, none are an automatic fold for our man.

[ QUOTE ]
Essentially if i raise his bet I can only see him doing two things: folding with KK, QQ, AK, AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he wont. Don't assume this. I think this is a horrible misunderstanding of how to read an unknown player.

[ QUOTE ]
or maybe calling then checking the turn and giving it away... or raising with AA or JJ sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, far too tight. He could raise with A9s. He could raise with 98s. Don't pigeonhole your opponent!

[ QUOTE ]
So my goal should be to do what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your goals for this hand are based on information which I have just shown is flawed, just keep that in mind and read on.

[ QUOTE ]
A: Raise the minimum amount to get him to reveal his hand, ie raising me all in or calling then pushing big on the turn.
B: Call and see what happens on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Get all my money in as fast as I can and take advantage of a 70/30 lead.

[ QUOTE ]
Okay...

Option B seems completely unreasonable as any Q or K will completely screw me over, risking filling a straight or completely a better set. Or it could provide an opportunity to bluff a straight if he has AA or JJ, hmmm... But then I'm putting money into the pot on the flop with the hope that a Q or K will come, and then that only gives me opportunity to bluff at it. Please comment on this option seriously, need help. I don't think it's good though, leaving option A.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do not EVER EVER EVER flat call this. You can be sure now that you are a sizeable favourite in this hand, and you want to get your money in whilst you are ahead. A celebrated poster on this forum once coined the phrase..."Slowplay, slowplay, slowplay, BUSTO!!"* and you should remember it. Half the deck makes you crap your pants on the turn and you'd feel pretty stupid if you let him have a basically free shot for him to hit his straight draw. Please don't ever slowplay anything on a board this scary.

[ QUOTE ]
Option A... so what is the minimum bet to get him to fold AK, AQ, KK, or QQ? Remembering he bet out 2.75, maybe if I put it up to 7.75 forcing him to put 5 more in? But would he still call with AK or AQ? Maybe 8.75? Sounds better, what do you guys think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll ask you a better question - why on earth do you want him to fold all the hands you are ahead of? This was a revelation in my poker journey too - you actually want these hands to call you, BUT.... you want your opponent to make a mistake in doing so. You can force him to make a mistake by killing his pot odds, and you do this by betting big. 4 or 5 times his bet is usually enough, unless the pot is huge in which case you should make the raise the size of the pot. I think $10 is fine here.

[ QUOTE ]
So lets say that I raised his 2.75 flop bet to 8.75, and he shoved all in on me, esesntially like what happened in the hand except I had raised to 10 and put 1.25 more than a 8.75 raise would have committed to the pot.

Would he really shove with KK, QQ, AK, or AQ? Keeping in mind it's 25 NL and my super-unjustifiable read is that he's tight, I don't think so on the KK or QQ hands, not with the fat ace sitting there. With AK or AQ, again what can he put me on? Ax? Because that's all he's beating, and there's no way he'd put me on that with the big raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

It's great that you are thinking second level. But whats to say he is too?

[ QUOTE ]
So the only thing he's likely to shove with is AA or JJ, the top sets.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is sooo weak tight. Your reasoning here is all results oriented.

[ QUOTE ]
I'll give it, say, a 80% chance he has the higher set and 20% chance he doesnt, thinkign either I'm bluffing, he can bluff me out, or whatever with his AK, AQ, he has enough outs, etc. What do you think of this probability? It's highly subjective and I just thought 'well thats good enough'... how would you calculate this range more exactly or objectively?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did you get these numbers from????

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds are... call 12 to contest a 52 pot. Maybe 3.7:1, guessing in my head. Too bad my 80% or 4:1 chance of winning calculating was so subjective, because I really can't rely on it too well here. Seriously need help, what odds would you give to him having the goods or not having the goods, and how would you calculate it? I gave 4:1 (or 80%), but it just 'felt' like a good, roung number.

But still I don't have the odds and should fold, just barely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't do odds like this because I'm not a math guy. I think that taking the Sklanksy approach to every hand is unhelpful because you are basically assigning a definite probability to a human, which we all know is impossible. What Sklanksy is good for is determining what the maximum or minimum values for a probability would have to be in order to make a call profitable or not. Again, I'm not a math guy so I cant help you with this, but rest assured that that kind of analysis is totally unnecessary here.

What I would do in this situation? I ask myself: What do I know about this guy? Nothing. What have I seen from him? He's folded 5 hands. Dude the worst LAG in the world knows how to fold 5 in a row. It means nothing. What COULD he have? Well there's really just plenty he could have. Am I strong enough against his range to justify getting it in? Oh hell yes (see above).

Having decided that I have justifiably balanced the good with the bad and that I can reconcile myself in my decision if he does have the straight/overset, I make a decision to go with it. I usually say to myself out loud, "I'm going broke here. Here we go." and I do whatever it takes to get the money in. Thats just poker dude, you make a choice and you go with it, and I think that folding here would be a massive mistake.

[ QUOTE ]

Helps a lot to write all this out rather than just say 'luckbox, set over set' and move on to the next hand. Got some questions for those who read this far. Most important for anyone nice enough to answer my questions is to go into the 'why' and 'how' rather than just the answer: this hand is unlikely to come up to often, but the principles may, and I need to know the workings and methods that you use to come to your conclusions to be able to grasp the principles.

edit: Question: Do you consider my range I put on him good?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Too tight. See above.

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind it's 25 NL 6-max, and we are playing 5-handed. Looking back over the post it seems as though I can open up the range a bit to account for 5 handed, but the position says no. What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I'll raise anything from the SB if I'm feeling a little frisky.

[ QUOTE ]
1. What do you think about what I considered to be my two options on the flop, either raising the minimum to get him to shove (either re-raising my raise of his flop bet, or calling then shoving the turn), or option B of calling him and trying to hit a scare card of K or Q. Do you consider there to be another option, like folding the flop straight out or shoving all in, etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I've covered this one. But if you flat call this I swear I will hunt you down and slap you repeatedly with a spatula. And that [censored] can hurt man, I put some power behind it too.

[ QUOTE ]
2. If you agree that the raise was good on the flop (I do) and I should be doing it to get him to fold (no, you don't want him to fold) with the minimum amount invested in the raise, what amount would you think would be good? I said 8.75, what do you think and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

$10 straight gives him the chance to a) make a mistake by calling you by offering him rubbish odds to draw to a straight and b) gets the pot nice and fat. Remember, don't be results oriented - you were putting in money behind but you cant focus on that.

[ QUOTE ]
3. What do you consider my odds of having the best hand at showdown to be on the flop? I gave it 80-20, or 4:1, but it was just a nice round number that I intuitively picked. Keep in mind this is odds I win at showdown, not odds i'm ahead on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Good enough to get it all in". Thats all you really need to be thinking about.

Note here that people often talk about getting x:1 once the betting on the flop has started. Like they will raise to $10 then their opponent pushes and they stop to consider the call in relation to the pot size. I think thats pretty much irrelevant, because I'm getting all my money in on this flop and I don't really care how it gets there - just as long as it ends up in the middle. As far as I see it your odds are basically your opponents remaining stack + the size of the pot + your stack. Simple.

[ QUOTE ]
4. Does folding, if I barely have the odds to do so, a bad move as it does more damage to my image than it does to my bankroll? ie, is it worth it to lose $1 on avg on this hand to show that I call stuff, to avoid being bluffed? Is this worth it at 25 NL, or at any stake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, this is totally unimportant. Don't cloud your thinking with image considerations, not in situations like this. And no you don't ever have any excuse to fold here against an unknown. Ever. Don't make me spatula you.

--

[ QUOTE ]
Okay thanks for reading all that stuff. I'd love replies, but PLEASE go through your reasoning so I can grasp your methods, rather than just saying 'fold here, you are behind more than ahead' or 'shove always, pre-reload, move to next hand'. Those answers are good but I'd like to know why.

bigbb33

[/ QUOTE ]

Hope that helped. This [censored] better end up in the next digest or I am gonna be really pissed.

Oh and now for my proper answer:

Shove, lose to AA.

Standard

*Bonus points for the regulars - name the poster I am referring to.

EMc · #5 10-15-2006, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

*Bonus points for the regulars - name the poster I am referring to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where? Is there a star on the post or hte whole post?

loxsmith · #6 10-15-2006, 05:56 PM

get it all in and be happy

ama0330 · #7 10-15-2006, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

*Bonus points for the regulars - name the poster I am referring to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where? Is there a star on the post or hte whole post?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
A celebrated poster on this forum once coined the phrase..."Slowplay, slowplay, slowplay, BUSTO!!"*

[/ QUOTE ]

gumpzilla · #8 10-15-2006, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Been at the table for 5 hands, this villain has folded all. He raised from the small blind to 1.5. This shows more strength than raising from the button, so it cuts down his range.

Range: AA - JJ, AK - AQ

[/ QUOTE ]

This range is, I think, way too tight for you to be putting a random NL25 player on based on an SB raise having only seen him for 5 hands. Besides, even given that, a lot of players are stacking off with AK-AQ here, which makes up for the times that you run into AA or JJ on this flop.

bigbb33 · #9 10-15-2006, 06:29 PM

Thanks a lot for your reply ama, I was worried nobody would read it (I actually posted it at liquidpoker.net too).

The main points I'm getting from your criticism (good!) is this:

1. I don't have a large enough hand sample size to put him on the AA-JJ, AK-AQ range I did.
2. Without a large enough hand sample size, I should consider his range to be much larger.
--> Question: What do you think a good 'range' would be for an unknown player at 25 NL, from the SB? Just in general, of course.

Of course all my reasoning was based on the premise that the range I put him on was correct, and it all falls apart when that premise is removed as valid.

I do have a question on something you said, though, as I found it very interesting/enlightening. You mentioned that 'you shouldnt be trying to get him to fold all the hands that you beat'. That makes perfect sense to me: my goal should be to get the hands that are behind me to put the maximum amount of money in the pot, and myself to put the minimum in the pot when I am behind.

I think I was focused on the second part: put the minimum money into the pot when I am behind, which guided my logic.

Let me, then, come up with a scenario. Let's say that my AA-JJ, AK-AQ range was accurate, as it came from having played 50k hands with this guy. Would my logic and idea of raising his bet but folding to a shove still be optimal, or not? If no, what do you suggest?

I'm confused here: I understand my own logic and I think it makes sense, but then I also think that your logic makes sense. Unfortunately the two arguments come up with differing ideas of what to do if my flop raise is re-raised, so one must be more optimal than the other. I just don't understand which, or much more importantly, WHY the more optimal one is more +ev.

Let me again state my logic so it's clear. Remember that we are now assuming a scenario where my range is 100% correct:

I want to figure out if I am ahead or behind, rather than just invest money in the pot. To do so, I will raise his flop bet to an amount that will highly probably force him to fold if he's behind, and push if he's ahead, thus revealing his hand. Wow, typing that makes it realize it doesn't make sense. If I'm ahead, I'm going to scoop up his preflop + flop bet and my preflop call + blinds, for a total of say 8, but if I'm behind I'm investing 1.50 preflop + 8.75 flop raise for a total of 10.25. But then I have to take into account the probability that I'm ahead or behind. If there is a 0.1% chance he's ahead, then this makes sense (assuming he will 100% fold if he doesnt have the set), but if there's a 99.9% chance he's ahead, it doesn't. So somewhere along the line the probability that he is ahead (defined by his range, which is assumed to be AA-QQ, AK-AQ in this scenario, not the actual hand I played) must cross a line at which it is +ev to raise/fold.

This must be what is called equity, and what those calculations I see mean, like from pokerstove. I've only just started ready The Theory of Poker, so I'm not familiar with the formal definitions provided by Sklansky yet.

Okay okay I lost track. I'm oonfused... So, assuming that the opponent acts the way I think he will in this scenario (folding to raise with KK, QQ, AK, AQ), then at some point, depending on the range, it is correct to make the move.

But is it more correct (optimal) to just shove (or call as it puts me all in) to a re-raise? Not if the opponent behaves the way I assume he will (that is, he folds the KK etc hands to my raise).

I'm confused. Someone please help me out with this!

Chaos_ult · #10 10-15-2006, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I want to figure out if I am ahead or behind, rather than just invest money in the pot. To do so, I will raise his flop bet to an amount that will highly probably force him to fold if he's behind, and push if he's ahead, thus revealing his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that villain might push with hands that he THINKS HES AHEAD WITH

EDIT: forgot to mention the fact that this whole line of thinking is flawed. We want villian in when he's behind, and to fold when he's ahead