2 tbles left 88 facing repop

[TroutMaskReplica]

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Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

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i did?

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

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i did?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the pokerstove output? Did you include MP in your equation? How often does he call our shove and with what hands. That has to be included.

Sherman

[TroutMaskReplica]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]
i did?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the pokerstove output? Did you include MP in your equation? How often does he call our shove and with what hands. That has to be included.

Sherman

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fair enough. i did stove twice and quoted the results. output pasted this time.

I did also mean to mention that I'm not hugely concerned with the big stack calling so these numbers were done under that assumption. I'm not so sure how to factor him into a stove calculation, given that even though he could flat call pre with very strong hands, much/some of the time he'll be re-raising pre.

anyway:

vs 99+, AQ+

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,794,846 games 1.162 secs 3,265,788 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.377% 64.17% 00.20% 2435281 7736.50 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 35.623% 35.42% 00.20% 1344092 7736.50 { 88 }


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you need 1.77-1 and, assuming antes you're getting 1.8-1

OR

vs. 99+, AJs, KQs (60% overs, 40% bigger pairs)

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,605,960 games 2.253 secs 2,488,220 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.667% 62.46% 00.21% 3501418 11681.50 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 37.333% 37.12% 00.21% 2081179 11681.50 { 88 }

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you need 1.7-1 and you're getting 1.8-1 assuming antes

[Sherman]

Am I reading this wrong? Because it looks to me like we have better than (equity) 2:1 on both. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Stumpy]

I'll start with the 99+,AQ+ range for CO.

MP2 calling is always a bad thing for you.
I'd say he'll call with QQ+, AKs. You're 25% against that range.

When he calls, the side pot is 39,614 each:
39,614*(0.25) - 39,614*(0.75) = -19.6k

The main pot is: 71,380. Against QQ+,AKs and 99+,AQs+,AQo+ you're 20% to win.
71,380*(0.20) - 24,490*(0.80) = -5.3k

So when he calls, you're losing 25k on average.

If his initial call was pretty wide, like top 15% of hands, then he called initially with about 200 hands.
QQ+,AKs = 22 hands, or about 10% of that 15%.

So 10% of the time you lose 25k, or -2.5k on average.

You need to make that up the other 90% of the time. That means you need to win 25k*(0.1) / (0.9) = 2.8k on average when heads up.
To win 2.8k, you need: 2.8k = 46,890*wp - 24,490*(1-wp). (46,890+24,490)*wp = 24,490 + 2,800 = 38.2% to win the heads up pots.
You're 35.6% against 99+,AQ+. You'd be 39.5% if his range was 77+,AQs+,AQo+.

I would say that's reasonable. Basically it means he just has to be a little light once in a while.
If MP2 is much tighter, it gets ugly, because he's calling a bigger fraction of the time, and that -25k is a bitch to offset.

You can assume MP2 would not always flat call QQ+,AKs, so that would discount the chance he has those hands above. That would obviously help you. Overall, the numbers show it is very close, and your reads on how tight these two players are would be pretty important. Without that, I'd rather err towards aggression. Having a huge stack heading into the final table about 35% of the time is not bad at all. And when you lose you'll have 40k left at 2k blinds most of the time, which isn't horrible either.

The math to show shoving is better than calling is a bit trickier, and I'm not sure how to do it and have it actually mean anything. Reshoving looks really strong though, so MP2 will fold almost everything. Anything he'd be borderline on calling is really bad for you, like 99-JJ, AKo, so shoving seems better.

-Stumpy

[Dunkman]

Umm I did the math in my head and it seemed pretty close, then I factored in that I'm pretty sure this is air at least 20% of the time so it seemed like a pretty easy iso shove.

[j4lvlie]

shove 100%

[BarryLyndon]

It's not just the math. It's the pusher's image. You're not going to have the time to do all the math with 15 seconds to act. However, givn the size of the pot and the fact that you only have to put 24K in, I gather that if you can put pusher on a smattering of overs aside from AQ/AK (like AJ/A10), then I can't imagine how pushing can be bad here.

It's nearly impossible to factor in how many times MP is going to call here, but I'm pretty sure you fold out 99/1010 and I don't think that players during this point of the tournament fail to repop with JJ+. Could be wrong, but I have to go with some kind of strong assumption here.

Barry

[hamnegger]

i shoved lost to ak.

[Sherman]

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i shoved lost to ak.

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Run Better.