First MTT Strat Post

[awarunn]

Thanks a lot, that is good stuff. This may sound dumb but should I consider the fact that if I lose I am out when I calculate EV? In a cash game everything is strictly guided by EV since there is ideally no risk of ruin. In a tournament are my decisions still guided solely by cEV or should I be considering risk of ruin along with EV? I'm not sure if I'm expressing my thoughts very well but...

[seke2]

awarunn: at this point, you should probably not consider that you are busto if you lose. The payout structure is flat, as you said, which means the money comes from the big payday at the end, not from surviving another 10 places.

You'd need to be on the FT bubble or fairly deep in the FT with significant payout differences that would cause cEV and $EV to diverge enough to make a difference.

[mornelth]

Shove, the pot is 25% of your stack. The stupid-high antes make that a push with m=4.

[mflip]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, I'll show you how, you seem to be making a good effort here. My numbers feel wrong to me, but maybe they're not, someone correct me if I'm making some sort of retarded mistake.

Let's say we treat this situation as strict push/fold.

If Hero folds, he ends up around 10000, you just lose 100 from the ante, so that's basically nothing on your stack depth.

Now, if Hero pushes...

Given your reads, I think we can give a push calling range like:
{77+,AJs+,AJo+} for either opponent to call (assuming SB has folded before BB acts). That's the top 7% of hands, so ~14% of the time you will get called by one of them.

If SB calls/isolates, BB's range probably shrinks to AK, JJ+ given your read as a solid TAG, and that's 3% of the time.

So, you push, and ~85% of the time, both of them fold, and you win 500 + 1000 + 900 = 2400
.85 * 2400 = 2040

~10% of the time, you get called and have about 27% equity.
When you win 27%, you win ~12000 (your stack plus blinds)
When you lose 73%, you lose 10000 (your stack)
.1 * ( (.27 * 12000) + (.73 * -10000) ) = .1 * (3240 - 7300) = -406

~5% of the time, you get called in two places and have about 19% equity.
When you win 19%, you win 21000 (your stack twice plus antes)
When you lose 81%, you lose 10000 (your stack)
.05 * ( (.19 * 21000) + (.81 * 10000) ) = .1 * (3990 - 8100 = -411

Add that all together:
2040 - 406 - 411 = 1223

So if you really think they're ONLY playing premium hands here, this is probably +cEV to push, even with 86o. If you widen the calling range for the opponents to like, top 12% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo), then this is about EV neutral. You're getting called ~25% of the time now, and still have about the same amount of equity when you do get called since your hand still sucks compared to that range.

If you truly read them as only calling with premium hands, pushing any 2 is probably correct. If you widen their calling ranges slightly, pushing is probably -EV or close to EV neutral.

Edit: I am completely ignoring $EV, which may differ from cEV since this is an ITM situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not very good at this stuff but I'm not sure those numbers are right. When he gets called in one spot his stack would increase to 22400. If called in both spots his stack would increase to 32400. Or do we do the math with just chips won?

[seke2]

I did it with chips won rather than resulting stack size. You could do it either way.

[DonT77]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks a lot, that is good stuff. This may sound dumb but should I consider the fact that if I lose I am out when I calculate EV? In a cash game everything is strictly guided by EV since there is ideally no risk of ruin. In a tournament are my decisions still guided solely by cEV or should I be considering risk of ruin along with EV? I'm not sure if I'm expressing my thoughts very well but...

[/ QUOTE ]

The difference between cEV and $EV is largest whenever moving up a few more spots makes a large $ difference. Typically this happens on the bubble, near some of the payout level bubbles (like the FT bubble), and at the FT.

For example, even if you have a strongish cEV play you may want to pass it up near the bbl with M=4 if you only need one more player to bust out in order to get into the money.

It is also generally accepted in MTTs that the less chips you have the more valuable they are.

I'd suggest you read Harrington on Hold 'Em Volumes 1 & 2 and Sklansky's Tournament Poker for Advanced Players for the best explanation of these concepts.