Is there any way i am head of his range here, can you justify a call?

[dirtylobster]

I would definitely not fold.

[keikiwai]

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if he was on a str8 draw, he's not getting enough money in good even if you pay him off everytime

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Yes he is.


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ok you're right if we stack off everytime... not if we call

still think there's value in a shove

[Nick Royale]

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ok you're right if we stack off everytime... not if we call

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He's getting it pretty easily even if we just call. Not that it matters too much.

I think calling>shoving.

[keikiwai]

edit: blarg villain bet the break even amount

[wrschultz]

As long as you don't fold, I don't care what you do. I don't usually raise here unless I know the villain is a donk. Against a good villain, you NEVER get called by worse, because there are basically no hands in his range that are worse two pair hands at this point.

Anyway, call.

[Nick Royale]

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villain ~17% (8/46) to hit on river from turn

he calls $30 on the turn, so the total he has to win to break even is $30/$X=0.17 -> X = 30/0.17 -> X = 176

if we call he wins the amount we bet on the turn and call on the river plus what was in the pot from before = 30+40+75 = 145

so, that's a losing play for him if we call every single time

[/ QUOTE ]
Chance he hits: 38:8 = 4.75:1

Pot odds: (30+40+75):30 = 4.8:1

Pot odds > Card odds -> Profitable call


This is not accounting for us having 2 cards of his non outs meaning his card odds is more like 4.5:1 and the call is even more +ev.

[Xanta]

[ QUOTE ]
villain ~17% (8/46) to hit on river from turn

he calls $30 on the turn, so the total he has to win to break even is $30/$X=0.17 -> X = 30/0.17 -> X = 176

if we call he wins the amount we bet on the turn and call on the river plus what was in the pot from before = 30+40+75 = 145

so, that's a losing play for him if we call every single time

[/ QUOTE ]
While it's true that the turn is -EV with JT, it doesn't really matter. We make it more incorrect for him if we don't stack off on the river. Not advocating calling/shoving one way or another, but the logic that it doesn't matter if we pay him off since his play was -EV is flawed.

Edit: Whoops, shows what happens when you don't do the calcs yourself. Turn play isn't -EV for him. LAST TIME I PUT MY FAITH IS YOU KEIKIWAI

[keikiwai]

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Chance he hits: 38:8 = 4.75:1

Pot odds: (30+40+75):30 = 4.8:1

Pot odds > Card odds -> Profitable call



[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, ok, must have messed up my calcs

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
villain ~17% (8/46) to hit on river from turn

he calls $30 on the turn, so the total he has to win to break even is $30/$X=0.17 -> X = 30/0.17 -> X = 176

if we call he wins the amount we bet on the turn and call on the river plus what was in the pot from before = 30+40+75 = 145

so, that's a losing play for him if we call every single time

[/ QUOTE ]
While it's true that the turn is -EV with JT, it doesn't really matter. We make it more incorrect for him if we don't stack off on the river. Not advocating calling/shoving one way or another, but the logic that it doesn't matter if we pay him off since his play was -EV is flawed.

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No it's not -ev. I agree it shouldn't effect our riv play here though.

[Nick Royale]

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Chance he hits: 38:8 = 4.75:1

Pot odds: (30+40+75):30 = 4.8:1

Pot odds > Card odds -> Profitable call



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yeah, ok, must have messed up my calcs

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Yeah, you should substract 30 from 176 and compare it to 145. 176 should be 173 though because 17 is actually 17.3333...