AA facing c/r from mulit-tabling TAG

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is almost never bluffing on this flop, many TAGs dont 3bet 99 or TT on MP from the blinds, he could also have K10s or 109s and if he has a spade draw its most likely a hand like AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, 8s7s - all which r flipping against. This is an easy muck IMO. Versus a range of TT-99,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,KTs,QJs,T9s,8s7s, we only have 21% equity, even if u include the odd times he plays KQ very fast here - it still does not make up enough equity to get it in. Whereas, if we had like AsJs or AsQs - wed have 41.5% equity versus that same range and therefore a shove is more profitable than with AA (in reply to other poster about shoving draws and AA here - btw, balancing ur range in ssnl is completely useless)

[Jamsym]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is almost never bluffing on this flop, many TAGs dont 3bet 99 or TT on MP from the blinds, he could also have K10s or 109s and if he has a spade draw its most likely a hand like AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, 8s7s - all which r flipping against. This is an easy muck IMO. Versus a range of TT-99,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,KTs,QJs,T9s,8s7s, we only have 21% equity, even if u include the odd times he plays KQ very fast here - it still does not make up enough equity to get it in. Whereas, if we had like AsJs or AsQs - wed have 41.5% equity versus that same range and therefore a shove is more profitable than with AA (in reply to other poster about shoving draws and AA here - btw, balancing ur range in ssnl is completely useless)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have given him a pretty nice range.

I think it's far too weak and exploitable if we fold aces on a drawy flop IN POSITION for 1 raise.

At least we should be calling and seeing what happens on the turn.

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow at all the advice telling him to fold.

1 raise on a drawy flop and we insta muck aces.

A good tag probably 3 bets AK, KK, TT or 99 here.

I think a lot of his range will be draws or air.

If you re-raise your going to lose value from his bluffs with air and get called by hands that have you crushed or good draws.

I think you should call this in position and re-evaluate the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is almost never bluffing on this flop, many TAGs dont 3bet 99 or TT on MP from the blinds, he could also have K10s or 109s and if he has a spade draw its most likely a hand like AsJs, KsQs, KsJs, 8s7s - all which r flipping against. This is an easy muck IMO. Versus a range of TT-99,AsJs,KsQs,KsJs,KTs,QJs,T9s,8s7s, we only have 21% equity, even if u include the odd times he plays KQ very fast here - it still does not make up enough equity to get it in. Whereas, if we had like AsJs or AsQs - wed have 41.5% equity versus that same range and therefore a shove is more profitable than with AA (in reply to other poster about shoving draws and AA here - btw, balancing ur range in ssnl is completely useless)

[/ QUOTE ]

You have given him a pretty nice range.

I think it's far too weak and exploitable if we fold aces on a drawy flop IN POSITION for 1 raise.

At least we should be calling and seeing what happens on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno if ur being sarcastic about the range since if ur not - we only have 21% equity and should insta-muck. Our equity against that range actually goes down on a 2d turn according to my pokerstove (which seems a bit odd considering all his draws but w/e) so calling to get it in on a blank turn is not a good option AND it assumes hes jamming blanks with his whole range. And lastly, stop thinking in terms of being exploitable, especiallly at SSNL, its not like he knows we folded aces and is going to run us over, or that we r likely to play him too too much anyways considering the huge player pool, and even if he did happen to think that we could be run over and started trying to push us around - u simply adjust his range accordingly. Thinking in terms of being exploitable is just dumb IMO, all u have to do is put him on a range and decide how to play according to that given range.

[argy1182]

At this point of the hand, you are reaching a commitment threshold. Are you committed to this hand? my answer considering the information provided, is no. If you decide to make this call and reeval on the turn, you have created a pot over 50bb large. That is not the time to decide whether or not you want to be in the hand. If you decide to fly by the seat of your pants, you'll create large pots and oftentimes decide you want to abandon them. My answer here is that I am not committed nor do I want to commit to this hand. I'm shaking my head and clicking the fold button.