Is the market going down?

vodoo · #1 04-14-2007, 04:26 AM

hi guys,
im new to this forum but i`ve read much here in the investing/business forums.

My question is:

Do u guys think that the market is going to go up the next month(s)?
I dont think it actually is a good idea to buy stocks now, what do u think about it?

I also think that i am going to sell some of my stocks next week and take my winnings with me because i think the stock exchange will go down the next weeks (maybe if the USA is fighting Iran this will also have negative effects...)
Any thoughts on this?

gull · #2 04-14-2007, 05:27 AM

If people could predict the future of the stock market with any sort of accuracy, they'd be billionaires.

For what it's worth, I would guess that the market will go up. Over the last two hundred years, the market has gone up more than it has gone down.

vodoo · #3 04-14-2007, 05:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If people could predict the future of the stock market with any sort of accuracy, they'd be billionaires.

For what it's worth, I would guess that the market will go up. Over the last two hundred years, the market has gone up more than it has gone down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah for sure. But the market has been going up such a long time...
I just have the feeling that it might go down so im going to sell some stocks.

kimchi · #4 04-14-2007, 05:44 AM

Wars breaking out have been kind to the US stockmarket over the years. The latest Iraq war started in mid-March 2003 - the same week this latest bull market began.

I think the underlying US economy & its currency is approaching a dire state right now. The bull over the last few years I feel was more of a long-term correction to an even longer term bear market. The next leg down will be far more brutal than the 2000-2002 leg.

A financial depression worse than "The Great Depression" may be on the cards.

The current trend is up however. Until prices tell me otherwise I'll stay almost fully invested in equities.

gull · #5 04-14-2007, 01:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah for sure. But the market has been going up such a long time...
I just have the feeling that it might go down so im going to sell some stocks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, much of the gains you see are caused by the dollar depreciating. If you measure the strength of the stock market in other currencies, you will get a much darker picture.

mtgordon · #6 04-14-2007, 02:00 PM

Mediocre Hijack: How much are you protected against a market downturn by holding things such as Emerging Market, Pacific Market, European Market, etc. indexes? I get the feeling that they're so interwoven that it won't help very much but I'm very new to this.

spino1i · #7 04-14-2007, 02:25 PM

hehe thats why you invest in ADR's abroad.. go go Satyum Computer and Cemex!

gonebroke2 · #8 04-14-2007, 02:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah for sure. But the market has been going up such a long time...
I just have the feeling that it might go down so im going to sell some stocks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, much of the gains you see are caused by the dollar depreciating. If you measure the strength of the stock market in other currencies, you will get a much darker picture.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that. Measure the DOW in terms of gold, silver, Euros, the canadian dollar, etc. and you will see that it is performing miserably. I believe it will be that way for the next 5 to 10 years. M3 is expanding at 10%+ annually in the USA, which means you need to gain at least 10% on your money just to retain purchasing power. The FED stopped publishing the M3 stats; however, there are 3 sites that I am aware of that try to formulate what the current stats are. Here is one of them: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

People think that gold is a barbarous relic and like to quote Buffet's negative view on it, but I believe it is going to $800+ in 2007 and over $1000 in 2008. I am not new to this gold run, been in it since late 2000. Still plenty of time to get in on the action. The real money will be made in the gold/silver stock shares because of the leverage they provide.

lastsamurai · #9 04-14-2007, 03:57 PM

depends on which side of the market you are in...

The key to the market is not to be 100% correct all the time. Its knowing when to go out when you are wrong. My suggestion to you is to go buy the william oneil book "how to make money in stocks" and go to your local newsstand and get a copy of investors daily.