*** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) ***

[Thremp]

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Is this a serious question? Ill take above average for $1000 Alex.

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Then WTF are you doing laying 24.5? Its like regression to the mean is a foreign language... Did you come here from SBR? Or just wander over from the poker forums?

[centris]

Rich I don't think you understand waht is going on here:

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I agree that 24.5-25 is a LOT and your logic def. makes sense. That said, would you be shocked if they came out and won by 30? I know I wouldnt, and thats why I will not bet against that happening. That is basically my whole point I guess.

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When you are betting on sports you need to be more precise than the bold section. I would be shocked if the Pats won by exactly 30 (and not that shocked if they won by 30 or more), but that depends on my definition of shocked is (what percent of the time would it not have ot happen for me to be shocked if it happens). This definately doesn't help anyone decide if they want to bet hte game. You need to be able to say you are confindent the pats win by more than 24 over 53% of the time for this to be a good bet. That is very different than saying you would not be shocked if they won by 30.

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NE Total DVOA 73.7% Ranked #1. DAL is #2 with a 39% DVOA.
Any other questions?

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Missing the point here too. the question is not whether they have an above average DVOA, but rather are the Pats winning by more than you would expect based on their DVOA. This is obviously really importnat if you want to base future bets on their past results.

[Thremp]

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Missing the point here too. the question is not whether they have an above average DVOA, but rather are the Pats winning by more than you would expect based on their DVOA. This is obviously really importnat if you want to base future bets on their past results.

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DVOA isn't an accurate indicator in this either. If you think a team is running "hot" then their DVOA will reflect this. If you think NE is indeed that much better than any other team, LOL.

[RichGangi]

Thremp, Im not here to argue with you. Good luck the rest of the year.

[Thremp]

Post deleted by Performify

[RichGangi]

You are an angry individual. Have a nice holiday buddy.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Oic. Let me ask a question then: What makes everyone think NE wont win by 3tds and a fg?

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this
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Anyone that bets against NE at ANY line under 30 deserves what they get imo.

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Pats -24.5 is 3-7 this year, so thanks for the well thought out advice.

- C -

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PHL is not Was. PHL has #6 DVOA Off, Was has #19. NWE doesn't have anyone who can cover Westbrook in their LB corps. PHL just beat Was by 8 @ Wash.
PHL is not Buf, Buf has #23 DVOA.

Having said that, McNabb is out, 2 Safeties are out for PHL, but Feeley running a ball-control, short-pass offense versus this Def may actually be more effective in 'keeping it close.' The Eagles DBs have stopped Moss easily before, of course now he has Tom Brady throwing to him which makes it a lot harder.
Of course, as I stated I took NWE 1st half.

[Rustjive]

I just want to add, without picking for the game or shitslinging, that applying 'regression to the mean' to everything is basically [censored]. Thremp, Martingale fade the Pats til you win, LDO?

A poster on another board put it best: "This spread is not based on any of that. It is based on one man, and who knows what he will be thinking on a cold Sunday night."

[Thremp]

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I just want to add, without picking for the game or shitslinging, that applying 'regression to the mean' to everything is basically [censored]. Thremp, Martingale fade the Pats til you win, LDO?

A poster on another board put it best: "This spread is not based on any of that. It is based on one man, and who knows what he will be thinking on a cold Sunday night."

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This is so utterly pointless and wrong.

[CrushinFelt]

lol this thread should get stickied because it has so many posts that exemplify how to not think about sportsbetting