*** OFFICIAL 11/25/07 NFL SNF GAME THREAD (PHI @ NE) *** - Page 19

RichGangi · #**181** 11-26-2007, 11:36 AM

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Paging RichGangi...

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Tastes like [censored].
What can I say? I was wrong, you guys were right. Im just glad I only made the 1st half play(-2.2u). I didnt love the -24 but I didnt have the heart to bet against them either. Oh well, on to next week.
Edit: I still finished +4u for the week fwiw.

TooTallT · #**182** 11-26-2007, 12:23 PM

I'll take NEP under 17. Line should be about 20 in Balt IMO. They are much worse than the Eagles.

Rustjive · #**183** 11-26-2007, 01:09 PM

This is a graphic that ran in the Boston Globe about the predicted spreads for future Patriots opponents on Sunday (ie, before the Eagles game):

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal...1_25_07_notes/

Using a Philly spread of -23.5 (at the time of printing, I guess), future opponents:

@ Baltimore -20
Pittsburgh -18.5
New York Jets -30.5
Miami -30.5
@ New York Giants -17

Predicted Spreads against Playoff Opponents:

AFC Opponents (I'm guessing w/ HFA)
Indianapolis -13.5
Pittsburgh -18.5
Jacksonville -19.5
San Diego -20
Tennessee -22
Cleveland -24.5

Super Bowl (Neutral Site)
Dallas -15.5
Green Bay -17.5
New York Giants -21
Seattle -21
Others -23.5

Rob Akers from The Venetian was the source.

MCS · #**184** 11-26-2007, 02:06 PM

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New York Jets -30.5
Miami -30.5

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LOL, I love it. It'd be awesome to see a 30-point spread.

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Indianapolis -13.5

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This seems high to me. I guess Indianapolis has been less impressive after their loss to New England.

Post-Oak · #**185** 11-26-2007, 03:32 PM

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This is a graphic that ran in the Boston Globe about the predicted spreads for future Patriots opponents on Sunday (ie, before the Eagles game):

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal...1_25_07_notes/

Using a Philly spread of -23.5 (at the time of printing, I guess), future opponents:

@ Baltimore -20
Pittsburgh -18.5
New York Jets -30.5
Miami -30.5
@ New York Giants -17

Predicted Spreads against Playoff Opponents:

AFC Opponents (I'm guessing w/ HFA)
Indianapolis -13.5
Pittsburgh -18.5
Jacksonville -19.5
San Diego -20
Tennessee -22
Cleveland -24.5

Super Bowl (Neutral Site)
Dallas -15.5
Green Bay -17.5
New York Giants -21
Seattle -21
Others -23.5

Rob Akers from The Venetian was the source.

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I doubt Mr. Akers spent much time figuring this. A couple of these lines seem out of whack.

Why would the NYJ and Mia lines be the same? NYJ are gonna probably be pick 'em at Miami this week. That line is not out right now because Miami plays tonight, but that is what the line was last week (pick 'em). Remember, the article says that it is assumed that the Patriots play all of their starters. How is the Jets line the same as the Dolphins line?

Speaking of available lines, these games were available on at least one site (though max bet was $500):

NE -20 @ Bal
Pit @ NE -15
NE -11 @ NYG

The Pitt and NYJ lines given by Akers seem too high. Even the Miami +30.5 seems high to me.

If you go to the long NE undefeated prop thread, there was some discussion of what kind of lines we could see in these games.

kyro · #**186** 11-26-2007, 04:57 PM

I have no idea if this would actually factor into the line-making, but consider this.

1) Miami has kept a lot of games close, and is arguably as good, if not better than the Jets. I think in the next two weeks, it's possible we'll see a Dolphins win, which will inflate the public opinion, for right or wrong.

2) It's the Jets. Assuming the Pats stay undefeated and continue to win games by double digits and the Jets continue to lose games, can you imagine what the public will think? Big Bad Belicheck going up against his archnemesis and ready to lay the gauntlet. I could see the line being juiced up to take the NE action.

of course, I could be completely wrong on all of this and if I am i'm sure I'll hear about it.

Post-Oak · #**187** 11-26-2007, 05:46 PM

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I have no idea if this would actually factor into the line-making, but consider this.

1) Miami has kept a lot of games close, and is arguably as good, if not better than the Jets. I think in the next two weeks, it's possible we'll see a Dolphins win, which will inflate the public opinion, for right or wrong.

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I have a lot of money on Mia to NOT go 0-16, so I hope you are right. There is a thread on this if you are interested. I agree with the idea that Miami is not the worst team in the NFL (depsite their record). I wouldn't put them as quite equal to the Jets though.

I agree they have a good chance of winning that game (NYJ @ Mia) next week. Last week that game was available as pick 'em. We'll see what happens with Miami tonight, but that seems like a reasonable line. I wouldn't put Miami as equal to the Jets.

kyro · #**188** 11-26-2007, 05:51 PM

Without Brown, Green and Chambers, it's probably pretty close. According to DVOA though, they were the better team outright over the course of the year.

psuasskicker · #**189** 11-26-2007, 10:30 PM

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Reasoning like this is fantastic. And you wondered why people weren't taking you seriously and making fun of you and the other Pats fanbois.

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100+ posts into the thread and you're still completely clueless. I guess you missed the part where I said the game is a no play and the over is the only play. Why did I say that? Oh, because Belichick's running up the score is irrational? And because people were citing models and power ratings? And DVOA? Read my quote again, and see if you can understand.

Lern2readingcomprehension, tard.

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LOL @ +24.5 being a no play.

I don't care if you really are a fanboi or not...you were pretty obviously falling all over yourself about how awesome the Pats are and fell clearly in the "square" box even if you didn't bet it.

24+ points, 3-7 ATS and the squares still shoved the opening 22 over that number. I lost count of the number of sharps in this thread that have said what a stupid life-tilt inducing line this is, and you're still arguing that you're right.

Not my fault if you hate money.

- C -

psuasskicker · #**190** 11-26-2007, 10:38 PM

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i really think the +24 was a overreaction to the buff game. I wonder if we'll see a similar type overreaction to next weeks game vs the ravens. I wouldn't be suprised to see it in the +15/+18 range, in which im shipping my entire BR on the pats

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You know the game is in Baltimore right? I expect the line to be somewhere around +14 and to move up steadily. I have no idea what the correct line should be.

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I'm a Baltimore ultra-fan and I'd pound the hell out of Pats -14. The Ravens are horrible and have completely given up on the year.

- C -