200NL- TPNK + NFD vs donk

[Unknown Soldier]

30 hands!!! we cant make statements like that.

[spivey]

I don't see 40/0/0's run big multistreet bluffs (I know it's a small amount of hands), so I think if he's bluffing on flop, a call still may get us to showdown, or at least see a river card.

[Unknown Soldier]

one more time... 30 hands!!!!!!!!!!!

[spivey]

[ QUOTE ]
one more time... 30 hands!!!!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're 40/0/0 through 30 hands, you're a station. The exact specifics of your station-y tendencies may not yet be determined, but you're a station.

[Fat Nicky]

Here's a poker stove, giving a fairly tight calling range to our opponent, if we shove.

Board: 8s 2s Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.716% 46.14% 01.57% 14161 483.00 { As3s }
Hand 1: 52.284% 50.71% 01.57% 15563 483.00 { AA, 88, 22, AKs, A8s, A2s, KQs, AKo, A8o, A2o }

We're shoving in $234, to win $280

=280(.472) - 234(.528)
=132.16 - 123.55
= 8.61

So, against that calling range, the EV of shoving is $8.61.



edit: I'm retarded and can see I messed up already...in process of fixing

edit: seems like a shove is +$9 in EV after correcting my mistakes.

[spivey]

chop chop w/ that fixing