200nl - 150BB Turn Semi Bluff, Good Spot or Spew?

[Paul Thomson]

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Cold Call PFR was 1.2% Therefore wide range.

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wow, he is 3betting really light.

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Exactly why I thought on the turn I had possibly had lots of FE versus a weak hand.

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Can I re-iterate the above.

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Hey Primate...take about 2 seconds and THINK about what we're saying. You DON'T want worse hands to fold. You DO want better hands to fold. Which better hands fold the turn? What % do they make up of Villain's range?

[MadeInPolanD]

if you think he doesn't have much, 4bet pf

[Aces0Kingz]

call turn i think we have showdown value

[Fat Nicky]

here are pokerstove results where I input a range of hands that he calls us with.

Board: As 7h 9c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.144% 37.88% 00.27% 1000 7.00 { Ah6h }
Hand 1: 61.856% 61.59% 00.27% 1626 7.00 { AA, 99-77, A7s+, KhQh, KhJh, JTs, 97s+, 87s, ATo+ }

not sure what you guys think of my range, but I don't think it's too bad considered we're labeling him as a light 3-bettor.

so, 38% of the time we're winning $350 ($113 in pot + $237 villain puts in on turn).

and 62% of the time we're losing $237 (the money we're shoving on the turn).

237(.62) = $146
350(.38) = $133

so our EV when we shove and he calls is -$13.

so we need to make up $13 in equity on our shove.

in order to make $16 based on fold equity, villain needs to fold 60% of the time.

so, basically if villain folds 60% of the time, our total EV is +$3.

[Unknown Soldier]

call > shove. However, you all have seemed to have missed something. Getting it in with a lower draw is awesome.


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if you think he doesn't have much, 4bet pf

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calling > 4b

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4bet preflop

[Jamsym]

I like this a lot.

If we give villain a hand like AK then your 60/40 to lose the hand but with the money already in the pot and your fold equity i'm sure this is +ev.

I like a shove rather than calling hoping to hit because it folds out hands like A10 AJ AQ.

[Poker Gestalt]

scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

[Unknown Soldier]

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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lol, please dont shove pf

[Poker Gestalt]

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scroll down to Sept 11th 2006 and read

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lol, please dont shove pf

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y not? vs.70% defends how much do u think u get a fold there? vs.any decent calling range AA KK QQ JJ even AK even AQ whats that like 3-4% of hands

so out of the 30% that he defends with 26% of those are folds... 26/30 = 86% folding with allot of money in the pot already..not to mention times ur behind and come out ahead by the river