Paperchamp's NFL Week 8

[New001]

[ QUOTE ]
The indy game raised red flags right away. The spread is deceivingly low. Everyone and their mother is betting indy. I think this line will move to 7 and I will begrudgingly bet Carolina.

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I'd be more surprised to see it close at 7 than at 6.

[Jazzy3113]

if everyone is hammering indy why the [censored] is it stagnant at 6.5?

[mogwai316]

Wagerline shows 82.49% of ATS bets on Indianapolis.

[LogistX]

A spread move from 6.5 to 7 is a HUGE move. Wagerline does show a little over 80% on Indy right now but that doesn't necessarily mean 80% of the money is on Indy. However, I would expect that 80% of the money on Indy is not far off. Predicting precisely where the line will move is hard and I certainly can't do it with any real certainty.

However, let's think for a second what exactly this all means. Vegas moves lines for a couple reasons. Firstly, they may change the line due to new circumstances that were not taken into account in the previous line. Also, they move the lines to balance action in some cases. Potentially, if they feel they can change the line slightly without balancing the action, they may do that to increase their edge. It is still early in the week and it is possible that although a high percentage of bettors are taking Indy, not a lot of money has been bet relative to how much Vegas expects to be on that game by kickoff. In that case, it is not surprising that the line has not moved. However, if the trend continues and the line remains unchanged this gives us some very important information. If a lot of people take one side and the line doesn't change, Vegas is VERY confident in their position and they do not feel the need to balance the action. Vegas believes that they are getting the best of the public. If the consensus doesn't change by kickoff, I will definitely be on a Carolina team that can't seem to win at home.

Ramble ramble...

[NoChance]

I would also be careful when betting either NE or Indy this week. I know the players and coaches never admit it but they may already be looking ahead to the week 9 match up.

[LogistX]

Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

[paperchamp]

2-0 for the weekend.
+4.1u

New YTD

13-15-1
-5.95u

[paperchamp]

MNF play

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos -3 (-105)
Risking 2.1u to win 2u

[LogistX]

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina +7 at Bodog. I really need money in that book...

[/ QUOTE ]
I am fortunate I do not have money in that book =). Betonline still had it at +6.5 so I passed on it.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
MNF play

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos -3 (-105)
Risking 2.1u to win 2u

[/ QUOTE ]

An embarrassing performance by the Broncos. I honestly think that DEN was the right side but Shanahan made some terrible coaching decisions.

For example, the last play before the field goal to send the game in overtime. By running the ball with no timeouts the Broncos risked not getting the field goal off in time. If they pass in that spot, they can try for the endzone. An incomplete pass stops the clock and then they can take their time kicking the field goal. It worked out okay but if somebody had false started or the clock had ran out, they would have looked real stupid (which my opinion they arleady looked stupid).

Also, I didn't like the call to rush 3 men on a huge 3rd down in the fourth quarter. How many times do coaches have to get burned on this before they realize that good QB's can complete passes all day if they don't feel any pressure. They did manage to stop them eventually but lost precious time that they could have used in their final drive.

New YTD

13-16-1
-8.05u