AA on drawy board against NIT

[Profish2285]

Villain is pretty nitty and have not seen get out of line. He runs at 15/12/4 over 716 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $25
Hero (SB): $32.25
BB: $36.20
UTG: $47.25
CO: $24.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.30</font>, BB calls $1.05, UTG folds

Flop: ($2.85) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $7.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero....</font>

[kroeliewoelie]

I run 16/13/3 and I fold QJ to raises, which is IMO the hand you are afraid of. I expect to see JJ or QQ here. I think you are definitely ahead here.

[Logun]

hmmm on the tight side with a pretty decent AF. Personally I do not like this flop with our holdings. However I might peel one off here and stack a "safe" turn.

[wslee00]

almost no one raises their draws at 25NL. Unless you see him raising a lot of flops, I'd just fold.

[Sorcerer808]

fold unless you've really been opening a lot of pots / cbetting 100% (do you cbet air here? i dont). This flop hits a nit's OOP calling range really hard!

[z28dreams]

Eh, he probably has a set or 2 pair here. I just let it go.

I think most draws will just flat call here, and a pair+draw is unlikely unless he has JT.

I just fold - maybe it's nitty, but I think we can find a better spot against this guy.

[maciczka]

[ QUOTE ]
almost no one raises their draws at 25NL. Unless you see him raising a lot of flops, I'd just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny, maybe You are playing dieffernt pokerroom, I see good players doing that even at NL10. Trust me. I call, and shove on safe turn. He has JJ or QQ. rather QQ.

[Profish2285]

Kroelie, you said you play similar stats and QJ is the only hand I should fear. While I do agree that JJ and QQ are obviously in his range, it isnt very likely he has a set here as well?

[EMc]

This is tougher b/c its BvB. Any history?

[Profish2285]

I have played with villain alot and pretty much have never seen him get out of line. Actually, now that I think about it, I dont think I have even seen him show a hand down yet that wasnt played extremely standard. The problem is, villain could easily have QQ or JJ here and I am obviously ahead of both of those. The other problem is villain could probably have a set also here.