Derby Picks

[trapsetter]

Does anyone have any early thoughts on this Kentucky Derby? I am hearing good things about Circular Quay but I have yet to do any real nuts and bolts homework.

[funkytown]

I'm taking whoever Pletcher has in- he's due

[Bishop22]

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I'm taking whoever Pletcher has in- he's due

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I am kinda doing the opposite..

I think Nobiz makes a step up in the Derby after some aggressive schooling to shake his greenness. Circular Quay should hit the super provided his doesn't run into traffic issues, whether he has enough to win would depend on the trip given his running style. Not a big Scat Daddy fan, I think Pletcher is going to have a rough day ala the 2006 Breeder's Cup, with only CQ showing up. SD was all out to hold off the likes of Notional in the Fl Derby with a sub-100 Beyer, so I am not impressed. Look for how Pletcher's horses run at CD the first week, I believe he had some medication concerns at CD and thus the subpar meet last fall.

There is no reason to bet Curlin on top, he will be a huge underlay, the fact that he was sold at a loss as a yearling with that impeccable breeding probably indicates he was not developing fast enough to be ready for a serious derby run, that he's come this far in so little time is impressive though.

In order of preference, Nobiz, Street Sense, CQ, Saturday & Scat Daddy; depending on how Pletcher is running at CD, I might move up Great Hunter and Hard Spun to super spots.

[Sluss]

Street Sense had a great workout today, I'd expect his number to drop.

I don't like Great Hunter at all, he has not impressed. I'm going to have to put Tiago in some of my exotics, just because of the good probability of hitting the board with a late charge, which almost worked last year for me with Jazil.

Nobiz and SD could end up being good values.

[NajdorfDefense]

Eyeballing CowCat, CQ, Saturday and perhaps HardSpun right now.

CC is out of Distorted Humor, sire of Funny Cide, also a Storm Cat foal, 49er is grandsire. Won Gotham and Illinois Derby, very surprised this horse has very nice odds, $1.5m 2-yr old sale, great bloodlines. A Pletcher horse, dual qualifier and all that. Some 'cappers don't even have him in the top 10, which is crazy, 3 for 4 this year, all in the $, raced as a 2-yr old.

To get 20-1 on this horse right now is a nice overlay. Led from the start in Illini, won drawing away by 2+ lengths. No reason to think he won't handle CD track. Good workout over the weekend, 3rd fastest of 33 horses at Keeneland who worked. [Derby pool 3 he was 15-1.]

Beyer is not great, but same or better than Stormello, Scat Daddy, Nobiz like Shobiz.

Curlin may be the best horse, but a definite underlay.

[Mojo56]

My top 3 right now are Curlin...Hard Spun...Circular Quay. Obviously a lot can change between now and Derby Day.

[Sluss]

Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection."

[Bishop22]

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Is the love for Hard Spun simply that he has a good Beyer Rating? I have yet to see him run, but I always feel wary of horses that have not run in a real competitive race. He does have the "Philly Connection."

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I don't think it's the Beyer, there are like 7 or 8 horses with 100+ Beyers, He does figure to benefit most from the extra furlong according to Tomlinsons but they were crawling home in the Lane's End so I won't be betting him on top, I like him on the bottom of the Tri with about 15 other horses [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .
BTW new PPs are out.

[jafeather]

FWIW there's a thread on this in OGG, too.

[Bill C]

Nice interesting post, Bishop22. Knowing that Curlin was RNA tells me you dig into this pretty deeply! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I am not sure who I will bet in this race. I want to see how things go early in the week, and who's actually in the race.

Hot activity at CD this week is not an absolutely reliable indicator, either. I recall the year Monarchos won it, he had done all his speed work in the weeks leading up to the race. In the week or so pre-race, they just gave him long gallops of about 2 miles. Nothing sexy in that, so the press quit even going around that barn, being much more interested in who had just worked a bullet five.

This year is truly unique, in that so many of the contenders have done a lot of their work and racing over synthetic surfaces. This has never been true to this extent before this year. It's hard to say which will like the surface at CD.

Also there's a real crowd at the top, vying for favoritism, and this means there'll be some fabulous prices after you get past that crowd, and the race looks wide open to me.

I am not too crazy about anything coming from the west this year, as I think they have had kind of a down year.

I guess this year, the word I would use to describe this race is "random." None of the "stand-outs" really stand out. It's a great year for a crush, but you have to be ready to throw your tickets on the ground, because you can't cover them all. One guy said he's going to hit "all." I don't guess he has thought that over very carefully. And if you or I have no solid opiniuon, there's nothing wrong with just putting a fiver on a longshot and having a julep.

I'll check back later in the week and if I have any insights I'll throw them out there for what they are worth.

bill