Stars $38 NL 6 Handed Overpair Facing All In

jhub30 · #1 01-23-2006, 01:39 AM

Is this a horrible call? Is anyone folding this here? My thoughts at the time were that he was re-stealing since I was on the button. I thought about pushing preflop but then decided to make sure the flop was safe. I thoght he could easily be doing this w/ AK-AQ, or a lower pair. My thoughts now are that I maybe shouldn't have called because of my stack size. Any thoughts?

PokerStars Game #3727367766: Tournament #18507810, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/01/23 - 00:28:57 (ET)
Table '18507810 1' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: BCWESLEY (3690 in chips)
Seat 2: mf44 (920 in chips)
Seat 7: jhub3000 (2650 in chips)
Seat 9: Mightymouse (1740 in chips)
Mightymouse: posts small blind 25
BCWESLEY: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jhub3000 [Jc Js]
mf44: folds
jhub3000: raises 100 to 150
Mightymouse: calls 125
BCWESLEY: raises 400 to 550
jhub3000: calls 400
Mightymouse: folds
*** FLOP *** [2h 2c 4s]
BCWESLEY: bets 3140 and is all-in

deadmoney98 · #2 01-23-2006, 02:12 AM

Is this 4 handed or 6 handed?, cause 4 handed i call here every time. 6 handed I think and make a cryign call.

suzzer99 · #3 01-23-2006, 02:54 AM

Crying call. The play is not that strong at all on those 6x$35s. I'm guessing you'll probably see 66 or A4 here. He's playing like he's hit a dream flop for a low PP, and he's scared of overs coming. Would anyone play AA or trip 2s like that? You never know, but seems unlikely.

jhub30 · #4 01-23-2006, 03:49 AM

you do realize he re-raised preflop right?

jhub30 · #5 01-23-2006, 03:50 AM

Started with 6, down to 4.

suzzer99 · #6 01-23-2006, 04:36 AM

If he had QQ-AA, why would he push this flop? Why not try to extract a little more value? What is he afraid of? There are no draws. Or is he trying to do one of those "I look like I'm afraid so you'll call" things. Always possible, but IMO very very exotic for the 6x$38s, where you get yelled at for pushbotting. Maaaaaybe with QQ and the guy's a gigantic scaredypants, but doesn't seem likely. Or he's literally so bad that he pushes any flop that hits him hard. But the $35s aren't usually that bad.

jhub30 · #7 01-23-2006, 01:36 PM

I was thinking the same exact thing at the time. It simply didn't look like a value bet. My only explanation was that he had AA or KK & thought that I had a high pair & wanted me to put it all in before a scare card came. However, even then it would be safer to make a pot size bet (or even smaller) & hope I raise.

suzzer99 · #8 01-23-2006, 02:07 PM

Anything's possible. But I think that level of thinking would be way above the average 6x$38 player.

suzzer99 · #9 01-23-2006, 04:50 PM

So what happened when you called? I need closure.

jhub30 · #10 01-23-2006, 05:03 PM

Just an added tidbit. I posted this same problem at Full Contact & someone asked if anyone would run the #s like Harrington. I came up with this:

Mon, Jan 23rd, 12:03 pm

1. vs AK: we are a 3-1 favorite
2. vs AQ: we are a 3-1 favorite
3.vs AA: we are an 11.5-1 dog
4. vs KK: we are an 11.5-1 dog
5.vs QQ: we are an 11.5-1 dog
6. vs TT: we are an 11.5-1 favorite
7. vs 99: we are an 11.5-1 favorite
8.vs 88: we are an 11.5-1 favorite

The probability of a bluff is about 10% so we will asign the chance they have AK or AQ 10%. We'll also assign AA & KK the probability of 10% each since this play looks suspicious for such a high pair, for a total of 20%. We'll say 15% for QQ since it's certainly possible here. I think TT is his most likely holding so we'll give it 20%. We'll give each of the last 2 a probability of 17.5% each for a total of 35%.

It looks like this if we ran it 100 times:
1.10% of the time we are a 3-1 favorite so we get 7.6 wins & 2.4 losses.
2. 35% of the time we are an 11-1 dog so we get 2.8 wins & 32.2 losses.
3. 55% of the time we are an 11.5-1 favorite so we get 50.6 wins & 4.4 losses.

Running totals look like we are a 61% favorite over his hand range. He also could certainly be holding a smaller pair but I didn't want to complicate matters too much. The #s vary a bit from top to bottom because I rounded some of the #s of on top but went for more precise answers in the final trial. Does anyone have any compliments on the probabilities I assigned to each hand? Does anyone look at it a little differently?

I did it manually but someone replied saying they used Pokerstove & got .61168