Final Four

Clarkmeister · #1 03-26-2007, 01:07 AM

Thoughts?

tOSU vs. Town
Opened at tOSU -1 at some, now GTown -1.
Opened at 126.5, now 130 and rising.

Gators opened 3, 3 or 3.5 now. Total solid at 130 or so.

I admit to not understanding the Florida line. Help explain to my ignorant self. UCLA catching 2.5 vs. Kansas on a pseudo home court that had to be worth a point and a half. Call it 4 on a truly neutral court.

Now they travel 3 time zones to Atlanta, and with Carolina out, it should be a pretty big Florida fan base. Pseudo home game. And the spread is sitting at 3? How is it lower. I'm guessing FLA would've been favored by a point or two vs. KU.

I don't understand why it's not at 4.5 or 5. Naj, MT2R, thoughts?

BTW, I think UCLA is pretty dang good and could win, this is just trying to understand why the line is where it is.

iggymcfly · #2 03-26-2007, 02:13 AM

I definitely like the Buckeyes at +1. It will likely grind to a stalemate inside and since Oden's better on the defensive end and G'Town's bigs are counted on more for scoring, that will work in OSU's favor. If it comes down to a 3-point contest when neither team can penetrate or score inside, OSU's definitely got the better shooters

Also, I agree on the Florida game. I think the Gators should be favored by 4 or 4.5 in Atlanta. A couple things to note though are that the location was underadjusted for last week and the UCLA/Kansas line was off more than this one, that so many fans/rich executives travel for the Final Four that the pseudo-home advantage won't mean as much there, and that UCLA's probably getting a lot of square supporters since their win against Kansas was more impressive than Florida's win over Oregon.

Bill C · #3 03-26-2007, 08:29 AM

UCLA is coming together at the right time, after really struggling through the month of February, and the conference tournament. I've played and watched a lot of college hoops in my time and I have NEVER seen more impressive inside defense than UCLA put on Kansas. They flat out took away the paint, and they did it to a really good team; in fact a team I believe is as good as Florida or maybe better. UCLA had KU scouted to a tee, and knew everything they were going to do. This is superior coaching not only by Howlett but by his assistants. No way I'd take the Gators in this matchup. And understand, I am NOT a UCLA fan.

The OSU-GT game is tighter than tight. But I give GT a little edge. I think a lot of this is coaching. JTIII has put in a solid system that reflects his background under Petey Carril. His team plays a lot smarter than the more athletic OSU, who I think will have problems handling the backdoors, etc that the Hoyas will throw at them. While not a "fan" of anybody, I'll admit I have GT on top in my bracket, and continue to believe they can take the whole thing.

So I make it UCLA-GT in the final. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Just my $.02 worth...

bc

Clarkmeister · #4 03-26-2007, 03:41 PM

Hoyas settling in as 1pt fav. Total down to 129.

UCLA money pushing back down to FLA -3. Total still steady at 130ish.

New001 · #5 03-26-2007, 03:51 PM

Any idea if UCLA will get back to 3.5 again?

NajdorfDefense · #6 03-26-2007, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hoyas settling in as 1pt fav. Total down to 129.

UCLA money pushing back down to FLA -3. Total still steady at 130ish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I took GTown at +1 when it opened. Fla should be about 3.5, that sounds good to me. Lee Humphrey ain't gonna make 7 3s a half every game, Oregon gave them a hell of a battle with their PG going from 33 to 2 pts or whatever. 'Revenge' game for UCLA as well gives them a touch extra motivation, and Collison at PG > Farmar.

Clarkmeister · #7 03-26-2007, 05:40 PM

Does revenge actually matter in the Final Four, or any playoff game in any sport for that matter? Does that mean tOSU has a revenge angle?

ImStraight · #8 03-26-2007, 05:46 PM

Almost all of the totals for playoff games have risen a decent amount from their openings. I can't put this information to good use, but maybe someone else can.

Clarkmeister · #9 03-26-2007, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Almost all of the totals for playoff games have risen a decent amount from their openings. I can't put this information to good use, but maybe someone else can.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got in decent sized bets over 126.5 and 127.5 in the GTown-tOSU game. Yay.

rush66 · #10 03-26-2007, 05:57 PM

The only place that I see that had that was Cris and ABC? They opened at 126 and 127 respectively and just about everyone else opened at 128.5. The lowest I saw was 129.5 on FLA and its only at 129. Anyways, OSU total moved so much because 94% of people are on the over, and 74% on the FLA over.