Question re Turning Pro - When is Best?

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Your chances of getting a home loan as a pro gambler are slim to none. Even Hellmuth had trouble for a long time with this.

If getting a home is very important to you, you unfortunately shouldn't quit your job, and this is coming from a guy who tells everyone to quit their job.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know the Hellmuth deal but from my experience this is not true. In my case we officially had to use my wife's income to get the loan but the reason was I did not have two years of earning history in this job. Our mortgage agent said that a year from now I would be able to get a house on my own (hypothetically obv).

And I think the way we did it may have just been easier/gotten us a better rate than if I were buying solo.

[Jurollo]

Its all about how you file. If you file your winnings as gambling winnings then you will have a problem with a house, if it is filed a self employment then after around 2 years of steady earning you wont run into as many problems. As for the main question:

Someone playing $25-50 MTTs should basically never go "pro" in a conventional sense. Build your BR up to be able to play the smaller, higher buyin tournaments and sustain variance at those and be able to win at those.

Learn a trade or something and don't mortgage your future on poker (no pun intended). You keep saying that your earning potential is low as is but you are looking at it wrong. Yes its low right now but that doesn't mean it has to stay low forever, learn a trade, gain employable skills and increase your earning potential. Keep poker as supplemental income and profit.
~J

[billybeartku]

get a college degree before you do this.

[skier_5]

I'd be weary of starting out with poker professionally and taking on a mortgage at the same time, but it sounds like you have at least 6 months+ before you do that, which is good. I'd also have 6 months or more of living expenses tucked away (aside from your roll) before you get something like a mortgage imo.

I'm not sure how not having a job is going to affect your chances of getting a loan and that might be the issue here, however if you want to do this, I wouldn't wait until then because it's just going to be a lot more stressful with a huge monthly nut and if you want to keep your head on straight, you really can't need to worry about the week to week results.

One last word of advice: You will run worse than you ever thought possible.

I've thought this a few times now and it always has the ability to come back worse. When you run bad you don't play as well so you compound things. Add in trying to move up stakes or something and things can go to the shitter real quick.

I'd say if you can figure out what you are gonna do about the home loan, this is probably the best chance you are gonna get to go pro, so go for it.

[bearwiredpair]

Fianally something I can chime in on with some experience!

I live in Southern California and have only a High School dipolma. I have had several jobs that paid well over minimum wage. It just takes some creative thinking and the willingness to start at the bottom and work your way up.

Here is one success story. About 5 years ago I walked into a a major home improvement retailer and took a part time seasonal job making almost 11.00 an hour. 3 years later I held a postion in upper management pulling in over 60K a year with awesome benefits (heatlh, stock options and uber-vaction). All it took was a little hard work and saying yes to every thing asked (overtime,weird shifts, etc...)

I dont know if they do this in Australia but another job I had that had great hours and if I work hard at can make tons of money is collections. If you find the right agency that pays really good bounses and you could be making bank in a real short time.

Currently my wife and I manage two large apartment complexes in LA county. Talk about no overhead! We get free rent, free cable, part of our utilities paid, a decent salary and benefits. We have no commute and (dont tell my boss) put in about 15 hours of work a week. (talk about a job made for poker!)

My point is this, dont use your lack of education as an excuse. If you dont have a diploma get a GED. With a little creative thinking the skys the limit. There are many jobs that will fit into a poker life.

From what I have read being a pro is no bed of roses. There are going to be times when have no cash. You need a solid foundation and a back up plan.

Think abot this...
You have made the leap to full time MTT player and are doing well. You have got that house. Your girlfriend loves you so much she wants kids. You just bought yourself a spiffy new Range Rover. Now you have to play poker. 8 to 12
hours a day, every day. Is it really going to be something you love to do now? And what if (God forbid) you hit a losing streak.

Just my thoughts.
Good luck in your decision.

Bear

[trivo]

you used the word "fathom" go to school

[Soulman]

nice post bearwired.

[SumZero]

I've got a few things to say:

1. Your sample size is too small to really know your ROI. Especially for MTT. One big score could be a huge chunk of the ROI you've got and you might have been lucky to get it (I'm not saying your a losing player [even though it is possible] or even necessarily worse than your results [you may really be a 200% ROI player on a downswing], just that there are huge error bars on your estimate of your true ROI%). Also note your true ROI may be quite different if you start playing tournaments at different times with different players and different numbers of players and different buy in levels.

2. You shouldn't buy a house in 2008. I know more about the real estate market in the US than Australia (where abouts in Australia are you?), but I do know a bit about the real estate market in Australia since my Dad just bought a house last month and retired there (Narooma, NSW). The real estate market was in a huge up turn in both places and is starting the decline. Early 2008 is definitely too soon in the US and likely too soon in Australia. If you want your own place, rent it - this will be especially a good decision since you may want to move over the next couple of years (back to your parents as you go broke OR to a nicer larger place as you make $$$ playing poker and start to want a family).

3. You may want to try some STT to augment your MTT, if you aren't already. They will tend to have smaller swings in your bankroll (smaller in both directions) but may be easier to find if you play at non-peak US/Europe times.

4. Low overhead for 6 months is an ok idea, definitely required if you are about to enter a huge commitment like a death-pledge, but if you go with renting instead of the mortgage it may be less required.

5. Make sure you post both on what your final decision is and how your pro poker career goes to 2+2 - especially if your pro-career doesn't work out (I'm not saying it will not). We tend to get sampling errors as if people try being pros and it doesn't work out they don't tend to post where as if it does they do tend to post. Seeing someone on the verge of going pro means we know about you and you've been posting *before* anyone knows for sure which side of the success/failure your pro career will go, so it makes it that much more valuable to hear about the outcome.

6. Good luck what ever you decide.

[Hoop Addict]

Thanks a bunch for all the replies guys. I really do appreciate it.

A few things.

Re : Australian housing market - I'm in Adelaide, South Australia. There are a few areas (just a little out of town) which I think (and speaking with a few Real Estate Agent's, they think too) will be great investments. Maybe getting a home just isn't feasible right now. The other issue is whether my lady & I would even get a home loan under our current working conditions - she makes a decent wage, but is always put on short contracts, rather than being made permanent.

Re : moving up stakes & playing different competition - that's an interesting comment, something which I hadn't really thought about. I have started playing higher stakes (for example, my avg buy-in in Feb was $9, and in July was $45). I've had a bit of success in the $50 MTT's, and 1 FT of a small $109 FO. Having said that, my sample size in these tournaments is ridiculously small.

Re : 1 big score warping my ROI/Profit – my biggest score is $8.6K, next biggest is $2.7K, then $2.5K. A lot of these profits have been in $10-$20 MTT’s with wins of $800-$1K.

However, before I started playing back on Stars again and was just playing a smaller, Euro-based site and playing pretty small stakes, I was making enough that I *could* have lived off it.

Since I've been working & profiting from poker this year, I do have a bit to fall back on. I currently have ~$20K saved up outside of my roll (with the intent being that that would be for a deposit - along with what my gf has saved up over the past 12-18 months). However, if we were to scrap the idea of buying a house, well, that'd at least be a bit of a safety net.

My gf is pretty much in the "for" category of whether I should do this or not, however, she's always been more flighty/carefree than I have been. I'm generally very conservative.

Re : those saying to go & get qualifications etc - my problem is, I can't really think of anything I *want* to do. I know most will say "well, who *wants* to work?" but I just don't see myself actually doing something to get some qualifications unless I really *want* to do it. It's just not in my nature.

I think I'll have to talk to my folks about it (which I have before, just not about quitting work *now*) since if it goes wrong, I'll most likely be leaning on them.

Again - thanks a bunch for all your advice. If anyone has more to add, please feel free, I'll take any advice on board.

**edit** - One other thing is that right now, I’m really struggling to fit everything in with my commitments to work, basketball & spending time with my gf, as well as playing poker. Now, 3 of those things I love, 1 I do out of necessity. I guess if it’s possible to live while devoting time to the three things I love, and ditching the thing I don’t enjoy, then that has to be a good thing, right? Unfortunately, coaching in Australia is largely voluntary, but there’s no reason I can’t be aiming to get into paid coaching work in the next few years as well – which would help.

[aramfingal]

[ QUOTE ]
I live at home with my folks. My girlfriend of 4 years also lives with her folks (although in reality, we both split time at each others house). We're pretty much ready to get our own home in the early stages of 08.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you're not, you're so not.
you're 23, and you want to buy a house with a girl you haven't even lived with yet?
now that is a gamb00l. get an apartment. the odds that you're still together after the first year are a coin flip if you're lucky.