AKo Bubble in SB - Call and Let BB come over top?

[tshort]

I did a bad job of posting this hand.

READ The villian is grinding tables and is a 2+2er. I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a read on me. Given the situation, he should come over the top if the SB completes.

I think "Hey, 65% of the time I will be ITM and double up" if I let him come over the top.

Otherwise, I push and if I steal stacks are 4200 (Hero), 2400 2+2er, 5300, 8200 (if he calls it's a little worse than the 65% scenario).

So, given the new stack sizes how often do I place? Much more than 65% of the time with a 6600 chip stack? The big stack to my right is being aggressive as you might expect.


These were my thoughts, although the ICM math says it is a clear push (which I would probably do now).

[Wolfram]

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If you really know his tendencies that well, this is just a math problem.

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