Long post/rant/whine. Maybe instructional.

[Josh W]

I'm running bad. I don't publicize it as much as many here do, to each their own I guess. I loathe exaggeration, so I'm going to try not to use any here.

I'm now down 1500 BB. The beats are certainly aggravating. Everybody folding to your BB when you have AA/KK is also aggravating.

Losing to set over set 6 times in a row when you flop a set is aggravating.

When you finally are on top of a set-over-set scenario, it's frustrating when your opponent has just under one SB (Small blind, not small bet) preflop.

Flopping top-two vs. bottom set 3 times in 800 hands is frustrating.

Having Ax vs Ay (where x is a K or a Q, and Y is a J or a T, flopping AAz (where z is less than a 6) three times, chopping two and losing one is frustrating.

Losing AKh to 77 on a A 5h 3h board again and again is frustrating.

Going thousands of hands in a row without flopping a pair with KQ, KJ, AK, AQ, AJ, or AT is mind numbing.

Playing 800 hands at 6-max tables, winning 5% of the pots is sick.

Playing 60 hands headsup and winning 3 of them is bothersome (okay, that actually happened a while ago, not during this run).

But what's starting to piss me off the most (not this forum, because if that was the case, I would just avoid this forum) is people bitching about 3 outers, people whining about 300BB downswings, people complaining about losing w/ AA, people breaking even for 20k hands, and other trivial aspects of variance. Yes, 300 bets and 20k breakeven stretches are trivial.

Now for some hopefully instructional points:

Don't underestimate variance. When you play 2k hands in a day, and lose a handful (or a ton) of bets, ask yourself "man, as much as that sucks, could I handle it every single day for 8 weeks straight?" Because it can happen.

Don't buy too much into the "it has to turn around" myth. It doesn't. It PROBABLY will, but it may not be for 200,000 bets. And even then, there's no guarantee.

Don't think that other people care about your running bad. The only reason they listen (if they do) is because either you have a hot sister that they wanna bang (not directed at anybody here), they can't wait for you to shutup so they can tell you about their own beats, or they can't wait for you to shutup so that they can give you advice. Trust me, I've heard all the advice....are you playing too loose? are you playing too tight? are you playing too aggressive? are you playing too passive? are you playing too many tables at once? are you playing too tired? are you playing too wired? are you stressed out about other things? are you still sharp?

I'm playing like I have for 6+ years. I've tightened up ever so slightly, just to cut down on variance, but I'm still playing winning poker. It's not until you sit down and see the beats that you understand it isn't style. You raise w/ AA, and it's HU, and the flop comes A83, and J9 beats you. You didnt' play too tight or too loose or too anything. There's nothing you could do to avoid it. And even if you listen to everybody's advice, you were still 'destined' to lose that pot. Such is variance.

So, when you run bad, this is what you get...you get to lose enough money to buy small nations. You get to listen to people bitch about losing 3 big bets. You get to listen to people telling you that you are screwing up, regardless of whether or not it's true. You get to listen to people telling you to shut up.

And really, those last people are the people who are handling it best.

I was in Vegas last week, and I met a girl. No, nothing happened (I'm in an ecstatic relationship...it's like a happy relationship only moreso). But she and I clicked, and we both recognized some unusual traits in each other that we both possess (weird sentence structure, sorry). And I told her as we said our goodbye's "understand that when xxxxx happens to you, somebody out there understands what it's like".

That's what running bad is like. Somebody out there also knows what it's like.

No pots were won (4 tabling) while writing this post. I just reread the post. There is one small exaggerations in it that i don't feel like correcting.

Josh

[Justin A]

The fact that you're on this kind of slide is one of the main reasons I'd be happy to never play another hand of limit hold'em online.

[DrSavage]

Some time ago I would read about 1500 BB downswing and chuckle to myself about some idiot who probably doesn't even know what he's doing. Right now I read posts about terrible 200 BB downswings and chuckle at idiots who live in a happy rainbow world and have no idea what variance may have in store for them. I believe you Josh, hang in there.

[yvesaint]

sooo....how do you fund this swing? you have to have gone broke multiple times now. or are you moving down all the way to like .5/1?

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
sooo....how do you fund this swing? you have to have gone broke multiple times now. or are you moving down all the way to like .5/1?

[/ QUOTE ]

does it matter?

[The Bride]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sooo....how do you fund this swing? you have to have gone broke multiple times now. or are you moving down all the way to like .5/1?

[/ QUOTE ]

does it matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested. If 1500 BB downswings are possible then presumably 1500 BB upswings are too? If I'd lost 1500 BB I'd be seriously considering that I'm not +EV in whichever game it is you're playing. Maybe that's just because I don't have much confidence in my poker game. But I'd be interested to know if you have dropped down in limits, and if so how far? And if you haven't, how are you so confident that you're a long-term winner in the game? I hope this post doesn't come across as snide in anyway - I really am genuinely interested.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sooo....how do you fund this swing? you have to have gone broke multiple times now. or are you moving down all the way to like .5/1?

[/ QUOTE ]

does it matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested. If 1500 BB downswings are possible then presumably 1500 BB upswings are too? If I'd lost 1500 BB I'd be seriously considering that I'm not +EV in whichever game it is you're playing. Maybe that's just because I don't have much confidence in my poker game. But I'd be interested to know if you have dropped down in limits, and if so how far? And if you haven't, how are you so confident that you're a long-term winner in the game? I hope this post doesn't come across as snide in anyway - I really am genuinely interested.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been a winning player for 6 years.

Since last June, when I got my new computer (and ptracker), I'm still up over 2000 bets, I'm not sure on the exact number....that's in less than one year. Of course, the problem is that i've spent (nearly) all that money.

1500 BB upswings are not rare at all. In fact, if you are a winning player, they ARE TO BE EXPECTED. That's what being a winning player is all about.

Yes, I have dropped down, to (on avg) about 15-30.

My winrate at 30/60 is still 2BB/100h, even after losing many hundreds of bets there.

I think that touches on all your questions. If I missed some, lemme know, and I'll try to get those, too.

Josh

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested. If 1500 BB downswings are possible then presumably 1500 BB upswings are too?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say more than just possible.

[Josh W]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe you Josh, hang in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Doc.

4 or 5 years ago I was running bad (and honestly not that good of a player) and Tommy replied to a similar (but more whiny, I think) rant with a bunch of advice, then "hang, just hang".

And, well, you reminded me of that.

The other good advice is "keep on keeping on"

Josh

[nolanfan34]

Nice post Josh. I'm going to print this and post it on my computer, as a nice reminder to not get too worked up when I lose 20BB in a night. I have nothing to bitch about.

I think threads like these make me even more amazed at guys like Tommy, who have played for so long. Yet people still criticize Tommy's posts, like he doesn't have a rhyme or reason for what he does.

Best of luck in the future Josh.