Daliman's Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8 - Page 3

NajdorfDefense · #21 10-29-2007, 06:00 PM

Good luck.

In 2002, all the local bookies in Boston just about hopped it outta town after the Pats won 'cos they couldn't pay out all the ML wagers they took v the Rams.

It happens.

Central Limit · #22 10-29-2007, 09:23 PM

Wow, that's a great story. Any more info or details?

[ QUOTE ]
Good luck.

In 2002, all the local bookies in Boston just about hopped it outta town after the Pats won 'cos they couldn't pay out all the ML wagers they took v the Rams.

It happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

NajdorfDefense · #23 10-29-2007, 09:35 PM

ocd: virtually all the bookies left town. They took action on Pats ML they couldn't pay out at 5-1 or whatever it was. All the locals were on NWE. Etc.

Central Limit · #24 10-30-2007, 12:00 PM

Yeah, I was able to figure all that out from your original post. I was looking for details like: friends of yours who got stiffed for big bucks, bookies who got beat up by the mob, etc...

Never mind...

[ QUOTE ]
ocd: virtually all the bookies left town. They took action on Pats ML they couldn't pay out at 5-1 or whatever it was. All the locals were on NWE. Etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jazzy3113 · #25 10-31-2007, 01:43 PM

Dali - Quick question regarding amount of total teasers.

Here is my example: This week I will be placing the teaser bets on Saturday. The lines have been rather volatile than normal so depending on where they end up I could have between 5 and 7 wongable, bongable, splongable games.

My question is how many teases do you make and with how many teams?

So lets say that 5 games are wongable. By adding 5c2 + 5c3 + 5c4 + 5c5 = 26. I can make 26 totals teases ranging from 10 two team teases to one 5 team tease. With 6 games the total becomes 57 and with 7 games it would obviously be more.

So when the total number of wongable games is decided do you make every single type of teaser bet from two teams to the one final large one?

Also, this week Pitt is going to be at -9 and I will wong them at 6.5 Should I make all the wongs 6.5 or only the ones with Pitt in them, or make a separate subset for these "reach" wongs.

Also, I dont recall if you do one large wong on all the games. How do you feel about this large type of teaser?

adanthar · #26 10-31-2007, 05:52 PM

Ugh [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I've been lurking in these threads kinda amazed at how profitable this seems to be - that bites.

Daliman · #27 10-31-2007, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dali - Quick question regarding amount of total teasers.

Here is my example: This week I will be placing the teaser bets on Saturday. The lines have been rather volatile than normal so depending on where they end up I could have between 5 and 7 wongable, bongable, splongable games.

My question is how many teases do you make and with how many teams?

So lets say that 5 games are wongable. By adding 5c2 + 5c3 + 5c4 + 5c5 = 26. I can make 26 totals teases ranging from 10 two team teases to one 5 team tease. With 6 games the total becomes 57 and with 7 games it would obviously be more.

So when the total number of wongable games is decided do you make every single type of teaser bet from two teams to the one final large one?

Also, this week Pitt is going to be at -9 and I will wong them at 6.5 Should I make all the wongs 6.5 or only the ones with Pitt in them, or make a separate subset for these "reach" wongs.

Also, I dont recall if you do one large wong on all the games. How do you feel about this large type of teaser?

[/ QUOTE ]
As many teasers as you can afford to properly place given your bankroll, I highly recommend placing. I was actually going to mess around with some #'s, (not my strong suit...) and try to figure out some sort of kelly-based approximation for proper bet sizing given different amounts of similar EV bets. It gets really complicated, and I'm not well versed in kelly beyond the basics. Also, I don't Kelly since I have outside income sources from SB.

That said, last year I was doing 5% of my betting BR per 2 teamer and 2% per 4. Both were grossly overbetting, but again, outside source. Betting ~260% of my BR 2 weeks ago would have been fun....

NajdorfDefense · #28 10-31-2007, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I was able to figure all that out from your original post. I was looking for details like: friends of yours who got stiffed for big bucks, bookies who got beat up by the mob, etc...

Never mind...

[ QUOTE ]
ocd: virtually all the bookies left town. They took action on Pats ML they couldn't pay out at 5-1 or whatever it was. All the locals were on NWE. Etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Many friends of mine got stiffed for big bucks. The WallSt trader types are apt to put $2k to $5k or more on a big game. Collectively, guys I worked directly with probably got stiffed outta > $100k.

MyTurn2Raise · #29 10-31-2007, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I've been lurking in these threads kinda amazed at how profitable this seems to be - that bites.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah...using a kelly betting strategy and estimating each teaser leg as coming through 73% of the time, you're bankroll should still be growing at by 0.02% on each bet at -110 odds

in a conservative case, that's beautiful

but, daliman has been running extra HAWT

Jazzy3113 · #30 11-01-2007, 07:18 PM

Dali, another question. For examples I will use Denver and San Diego. For a substantial length of time this week San Diego was -7.5 and Denver was +2.5, which are wongs.

However, they have currently been pushed to -7 and +3, respectively.

Can one tease the games to -1 and +9 or are the lines now moving to their "true" value so they were never wongs to begin with? If you had teased them at their earlier lines would this movement suggest you actually made an -EV bet?