flop decision - big draw

[redtrain]

2/5 live, average stack 2k. UTG limper (2k) is stuck almost 5k, I (1300) raise LP to 20 with 10h9h. TAG in SB (2k) makes it 120 (range JJ-AA, AK), UTG limper calls (range 37s - A9o), I call.

Flop 7h6h7c. Checked to me. I bet 200, SB raise to 700, UTG limper folds, so I've got 1k left and it's 500 to me, my action? 100% sure I am against an overpair SB.

[higHstaKesOwneR]

if you think that he has an overpair fold...
i don't think you have really much fe here specially on darwheavy board like this and you are a 40-60 dog against an Overpair...
If he is semibluffing with AKs here you are a even bigger dog... i pitch it

[SuperPokerJedi]

If the board gave you more then I would advocate a shove here but with a bare flush draw and a gut-shot I don't really want to put any more chips in!

[runnerunner]

After the 200 bet on the flop you are getting 1.6 to 1 for your last 1000 and you are a 60-40 dog against an overpair, so you have exactly the right price to shove. EV of Shoving = EV of folding, so it just depends on if you want to gamble.

[luckychewy]

flop bet is bad. would be less bad in a raised pot, but in a 3-bet pot it's just bad(esp with these stacks). fold now.

[amulet]

leading at the flop is not my play vs the opponent you describe. i let him bet then likely call or raise. however, your question is what to do after his reraise...

if he has let's say two black kings it is 60-40. however, if he has the Kh then you loose a few %. the redraws with AA and the Ah, KK and the Kh need to be factored in. additionally, he could also have AhKh. therefore it is not exactly 60-40.

if you push i doubt you have the possibility of him folding, without folding equity this has a slight neg expectation. if you give him the posibility of seeing the flop and knowing it missed you, and making the reraise with AKo that would be different, but you say that you are certain that he has a big pair.

if you call will it increase your action on getting paid off in the future, or will people fight you for future pots when they would have folded prior to this hand?

it is a slight fold, but not significantly enough that table image, if your opponent loses will he go on tilt, etc. should also be considered.

i lead towards folding as it is presented.

[Hong]

I done a little maths, this is my first time, so please correct me if I made a mistake.

On the flop, Pot=360, 7h6h7c
You bet 200(pot560)
UTG bet 700(pot1260)

You left 710, 500 to call 710 to All-in. I would ignore the call action since you can see the river call for another 200.

ALL-IN POT 710 to 1470(=1260+200 from UTG), odds 1:2

UTG hand range - comb
AhKh x1
AA x6
KK x6
QQ x6


If he has AK, you are 3-7 underdog
0.3x1470-710x0.7=-56

If he has AA-QQ, you are 4-6 underdog
0.4x1470-0.6x710=+162

I would have to say 30% UTG has AhKh since it’s a big risk for him to check with PP on this flop. Therefore, overall,

0.3x-56+0.7x162=+97

Seems like All-in is not a bad move.

PS. I did a quick check, if you only have a flush draw(not str draw), you are 3-7 underdog either way. So you are not winning in long run.

[afadeyi]

shouldn't have lead the flop. and your draw isnt that big.

[redtrain]

Couple of clarifications:

1. It was checked to me in last position on the flop... okay I can still check instead of firing but I was last to act.

2. I had 1000 left at the point of this decision (3 of my 1300 in the pot after my 200 flop bet)

[luckychewy]

re: your clarifications...

1) i don't see how this is more of an argument to bet? seems like one of the best arguments to check because you can take a free card with a nice draw, not to mention this is a great steal spot and anyone competent would realize this(ie: i would say a bet is okay with a hand you have no problem getting the money in with, or a hand you have no problem dumping to a c/r).

2) i understand what the stack sizes are. a push has no fold equity and you have ten high(albeit a nice draw) the pot is probably not laying you a big enough price to continue(i haven't done any math but i assume this is the case if you give the sb a range of bigger draws and overpairs). i doubt the sb is stone bluffing here, and even if he is he is still at least ~50% vs. us because he will currently(usually if not almost always) have us high carded.