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#1
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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[ QUOTE ] I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them. [/ QUOTE ] Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session. [/ QUOTE ] That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s. Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one. I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120. Sherman |
#2
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session. [/ QUOTE ] That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s. Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one. I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120. Sherman [/ QUOTE ] I was basing my calculation on his actual record in 4/180s (1 win in 208 attempts). I agree that it's entirely possible -- even likely -- that his actual chance of winning is better than 1/208. If his chance to win was 1/180, he would be 50% to win at least 1 if he played 125. *NOT* 90, as you suggested. |
#3
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.
The probabilities ought to be additive. That is, if his chance of winning a single 180-person MTT is 1/180, he chances of winning 1 of 2 180-person MTTs ought to be 2/180. And so forth. So his probability of winning 1 180 person tournament given 90 tournaments ought to be exactly 90/180 or 50%. Please explain how I am wrong. Sherman PS - FWIW, I know what you were doing by using his current data, I am just pointing out that unless he is a losing player (which he probably isn't) or is trying to lose, his probability of winning a single 180 tournament is surely better than 1 out of 200+. |
#4
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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The probabilities ought to be additive. [/ QUOTE ] Not correct. Each tournament is an independent event. Just because you didn't win 179 in a row doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win #180. As with any other grouping of independent events you have to calculate the risk of not winning one specific tournament: NW(1) = (180 - 1)/180 = 179/180 = 0.9944444 .... From there you can calculate the risk of not winning any of X tournaments: NW(X) = NW(1) raised to the power X = NW(1) * ... * NW(1) (that reads: NW(1) multiplied with itself X times). This gives us the chance of winning (at least) one out of X tournaments: CW = 1 - NW(X) We're looking for the number of (random outcome) 180/$4.40 to play to have exactly 50% chance of winning one: X = log(0.5) / log(NW(1)) = 124.4 So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them. |
#5
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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[ QUOTE ] The probabilities ought to be additive. [/ QUOTE ] Not correct. Each tournament is an independent event. [/ QUOTE ] LOL. I'm an idiot. U win. |
#6
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
if my math teacher would have told me that math could help me in poker, I would have actually paid attention.
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#7
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them. [/ QUOTE ] This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right. |
#8
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them. [/ QUOTE ] This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right. [/ QUOTE ] It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do. IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average. |
#9
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do. IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average. [/ QUOTE ] C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful |
#10
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
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I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 [/ QUOTE ] To be 50% to win 1 (or more) out of 60, you have to win 1.15% of the time. That's a little bit over 2 out of 180. |
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