Razz: Fold or chase on 5th?

[PARASOFT]

Razz ($0.25/$0.50), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.10 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (2.20 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (2.10 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ?

Total pot: (2.10 BB - $1.05)

Which option is better,chase/fold?

Opponent is a loose/passive player => He could have A,2 or K,8 in the hole. Even in the worst case I have about 33% chance( twodimes) to win so in the worst case it will cost 3BB to take a shot at what will eventually be a 8BB pot(How about reverse implied odds?!). What is the borderline to chase on 5th?

Thanks for reading.

[RustyBrooks]

Well, you're getting the right effective odds to call down. T high will be good some times I guess. You're going to have to re-evaluate on 6th, I wouldn't continue unless I caught a card under 8 or I caught a 9 and he caught worse.

[PARASOFT]

Rusty, I think the problem here is, if I have the winning hand on 7th, (probably) I wont be able to bet so I will win a 6BB pot. If my opponent has the winning hand, he will probably have me board-locked and will bet, thus I will lose 3BB. Is my reasoning right?

[RustyBrooks]

Your opponent can only have you boardlocked if he catches better than you on 6th and then catches again on 7th, because otherwise the best he'll have is an 8. That's one reason I say you need to catch better than him on 6th to continue.

Anyway, whether you put in 2 bets to win 4 (if there's no bet on the river) or 3 bets to win 5 (if there is), you're getting good enough odds. Well, 5:3 isn't quite good enough but it's close enough.

There's also a better chance than normal that he paired the 8, or has a worse card than 8 in the hole, because of 3rd st action (unless he's one of those who never raises 3rd)

[RustyBrooks]

Also there's a definite chance he won't bet 6th if you catch and he does not, if he's really passive. Even passive players will bet when their boards look much better than yours, but will slow down when you catch up.

By the way if you caught the Q on 5th and he caught T I would fold an awful lot more often. The small chance that T high will be good is like having a backdoor draw in holdem, it gives a little boost to your odds.

[ChipsAhoya]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you're getting the right effective odds to call down. T high will be good some times I guess. You're going to have to re-evaluate on 6th, I wouldn't continue unless I caught a card under 8 or I caught a 9 and he caught worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can't fault anyone for peeling here. Esp. if villain sucks...

-ChipsAhoya

[Praxising]

[ QUOTE ]

5th Street - (2.10 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ?


[/ QUOTE ]Get out. Look at it this way, take out the Q and K and you have a four-card Ten trying to catch a four-card 8. As was recently pointed out to me, even loose players catch hands sometimes. And if he has one, you aren't likely to know whether you beat him unless you call him all the way down, and he isn't folding no matter what he catches because he might suck out.

IMO, it's better not to get involved in these hands for such marginal probability of winning. It's like chasing a gutshot when you know someone has a big pair.

Get him next time.

[Sp00n]

Against particularly loose opponents 3rd is standard, definately fold 4th though.

[*TT*]

pots too small on 4th to continue. chances are you have a better hand but his board is far better than yours, call it a day in this tiny pot.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
pots too small on 4th to continue. chances are you have a better hand but his board is far better than yours, call it a day in this tiny pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

if I'm pretty sure I have the best hand (ie if I know this guy has a Q down) my board's way better than his