turn decision....not sure if its a shove/fold

[CheapFlop]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $14.55
BB: $24.65
UTG: $53.35
MP: $25.05
CO: $13.75
Hero (BTN): $33.85

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain was up a buyin at the table, and had displayed a loose image preflop but my sense was he was a smart LAG. I hadn't seen any big hands of his winnings shown down.
His stats over 50 hands were 74/16/1.6</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.85) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, UTG calls $2.00

Turn: ($6.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $13.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero???

Shove, flat call, or fold?

[boycalledroy]

Problem here is that JQ is a double gutbuster and the K is a bad card. I think I check behind here almost always, because we can hit a flush and I don't want a LAG to push me off my draw. Although with his af I'm pretty sure he ain't min raising anything BUT a big hand. If you were slightly deeper, say you had 40/50 I think this might be a call. Not sure though somebody will have to crunch the math for me!

[traz]

Definitely check the turn next time, maybe the flop too against this guy

[bigjoker66]

These LAG players are so unpredictable, there is no telling what cards he has.

He is putting you to the test, but they usually have at least some of the board here.

As played. Are you willing to risk $6.50 for a $25 pot? with one card to come? 9 outs for flush plus 5 outs for your hole cards. 50% - 50% or slightly more on the call. Have you seen him fold after he bets the turn? if so maybe push. Otherwise its up to you whether or not you want to risk it.

[mattnxtc]

Bigjoker

I dont like your analysis...

We can give him the 9 outs to the flush, but I think to give full credit to 5 outs for his hole cards is wrong. This board is way to drawy to consider that. Against a lot of ranges he may be only good to hit trips so giving him maybe 2 outs max for a total of 10-11 is a good. I tend to think giving yourself 10 outs total on this hand is ok

But in terms of this hand, getting to the river for free would have been the best play especially after he called the flop bet. The turn opened up a lot more outs for u that should make you want to see the river cheaply.

[Holdem_Hussl4]

[ QUOTE ]
Definitely check the turn next time, maybe the flop too against this guy

[/ QUOTE ]

[CheapFlop]

TY for all the replies...as I knew I had butchered the hand and should have just checked behind on the turn to see what the river brought (and whether my hand significantly improved).

My read at the time was fairly confident that villain didnt have the nuts or even top two pair.

I did end up donk-shoving (I was a little tilted at that point from another table), and of course villain called.

The river was a 9h and actually improved me to 2-pair. However, that wasn't a clean out as I had hoped, and villain showed T8h, which was in the range I had put him on (unfortunately that was the top of the range).

GG monies....but that's how we learn and improve.