NL25: fold bottom set?

[CazicT]

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You guys are completely underestimating how often people play 2p this way. Ad2d, 6d7d, A8, A5, even 85? If you're going to fold when you hit a set with a small pp with this kind of board, then don't play small pp.

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2 pairs aren't missing a flop checkraise, they're leading out.

This is the kind of hand where you go "DUMDEDUM I HAS A SET ARRINARRINARRIN o wtf how could he have 34 there poker is rigged." This seperates winners from marginal winners, marginal winners from breakeven players, and breakeven players from losing players.

Going broke with no reads and not defining your villain's hand with the 5th nuts is a good way to, well, go broke.

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Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV. I'd be alot more worried about 55 or 88, but if he happens to have that it is just bad luck.

Bottom line, Getting it all-in here is +EV even against a fairly nitty opponent. I really believe he will get all his money in with A8 and other two pair hands.

[Effen]

His aggression factor, at the time, was zero. Even after the bet/3bet on the turn, it only finished at 1. Nitty, yes, passive, YES. Passive players don't bet/3bet a street without a huge huge hand. Random 2 pairs in an unraised 5 way pot do not qualify. Your particular hand would be the worst possible hand I could see him doing this with; hence you are beat here A LOT.

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Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV

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Um, Wrong?

[bkar824]

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His aggression factor, at the time, was zero. Even after the bet/3bet on the turn, it only finished at 1. Nitty, yes, passive, YES. Passive players don't bet/3bet a street without a huge huge hand. Random 2 pairs in an unraised 5 way pot do not qualify. Your particular hand would be the worst possible hand I could see him doing this with; hence you are beat here A LOT.

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Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV

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Um, Wrong?

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No, he's right, because if he has 34 then you still have 10 outs to the river, I mean if the only hand he could possibly have is 34, then you're right. There is no way to narrow his range that tightly.

[Mike Kelley]

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Shove. If the flop was A52 you'd get all in, what's the difference here? You're good more than 45% of the time.

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I don't like shoving it all in, in an unraised pot.

[Effen]

10 outs, 21% to win.

$5 to call, not getting 4:1 here because pot is like $12. So yeah, he's wrong if villain had flipped 34 over.

[FireStorm]

If this was the flop Hero worst case scenario would have two shots to fill up, not one.

[CazicT]

If villian shows us 43, all-in would indded be -EV.

Although a flatcall will probably +EV. Is the villian really going to fold a straight when the board pairs? All we would need would be like a 1/2 pot size bet to break even.

This is just the case where he has specifically 43 though. I really believe you all are underestimating his ability to get all the money in the middle with only 2 pair.

[coordi]

Seems like he would just call with two pair as a super passive opponent. If hes willing to 3 bet 2 pair here, I don't know why he would check the flop to give a free card to the draws. Doesnt make sense to me. Of course alot of [censored] these 25NL>= peeps do blows my mind.

[Yo'Maha]

Not raising PF means having no idea where you're at here....

Nonetheless BB's range is bigger than a bread basket, so tagging him with 34 is just rediculously nitty.

Push! His A-8, A-x FD, etc. etc. could just as well be re-raising you to define your hand, cause he thinks he's ahead. Your stats on him mean nothing - too small a sample.

If you stack off - you've got to be +EV here. If he shows 3-4 or AA or whatever.........re-up and attack.

[CazicT]

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Seems like he would just call with two pair as a super passive opponent. If hes willing to 3 bet 2 pair here, I don't know why he would check the flop to give a free card to the draws. Doesnt make sense to me. Of course alot of [censored] these 25NL>= peeps do blows my mind.

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12/6/0 over 31

The number 0 is based on very little information.
His PFR% indicates he's raised maybe 2 hands in the 31 he's played. Maybe he won the blinds and didn't even see a flop. He's limped a couple of more times, maybe he had a draw and called a couple times then folded. That's all the info we're going on. He can have a 0 AF but still not be the biggest NIT ever. It is only 31 hands. Even 70 hands isn't alot to go on for postflop AF.

And even if he has a low aggro for real, that could just mean he calls alot with pairs, but when he get's a monster like 2 pair, he likes to slow play the flop and push the action on the turn.

Be careful when interpreting PT numbers. A low AF doesn't necassarily mean he needs at least trips to ever raise or get all-in. It just means he calls more often than he bets and raises.