Another bubble call (no SNGPT peeking) - a closed book quiz of sorts

[Gramps]

Villan is a known SNGPT'r. Look at the relative evenness of the two shorter stacks (but whose FE isn't in jeopardy yet). The calling ranges of the button, SB, and BB are likely to be pretty tight in UTG's eyes. Neither of the 3 other players have shown any signs of being spite callers, overvaluing Ax in these spots, etc. (to our knowledge). UTG did get caught pushing an average hand a little earlier, so he might be afraid his pushing credibility is affected to where someone might open a little, but maybe not.

$315+$20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) -

UTG (4545 in chips)
Button (2750 in chips)
SB(3660 in chips)
BB (2545 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero/SB [9c 9d]
UTG: raises 4120 to 4520 and is all-in
Button: folds
Hero/SB....????

(1) If UTG is pushing literally 100% of his hands, the call with 99 is:

(a) very close either way;
(b) probably a fold;
(c) probably a call;
(d) an easy fold;
(e) an easy call.

(2) If villan is worried about people opening up a bit on him (pushing cred. a bit shot/fear of spite calling) and is folding a few hands here, but still pushing top ~ 75%, then the answer to what SB should do with 99 in the SB is which of (a)-(e)?

Now...what would your answer to (1) and (2) be if you have AKo in the SB?

[Deuce2High]

Without 'peeking' I'd call with 99 and fold AK. Stopping somewhere around 88...

Edit: If he is pushing top 75% I think I'm calling TT+, TT is pretty close I think ....

(Wondering how far off I am)

[Bishop22]

99
1. e
2. b
AK
1. b
2. b

[Shillx]

- It is v rare that 99 is a fold against ATC. This case certainly doesn't qualify (easy call).

- Against top 75% uhhh I have no idea. Seems very close to me.

- AK also seems close against any range from about 30-100%. Probably similar to 99 against the top 75%.

[suzzer99]

Well I guessed, then looked it up and was partially right. Thanks, this was illuminating. Although there's one part that confuses me.

[futuredoc85]

id def call vs 100%. id probably call vs 75% but i think its v v close

[pineapple888]

OK this may be hugely wrong, but I'll give it a shot without "cheating":

BB is the shortest stack and about to get shorter so I cowboy up and call with both hands in the first scenario although I'm not all that thrilled about it. I think I like the 99 better in this case.

In the second scenario 99 is clearly worse off but AKo is actually better off because it dominates a higher percentage of hands. So it depends how much of an edge I want w 99 but I still have to go with a call with AKo.

[Michael C.]

100%: 99- d, AK- a (in a real situation I'd probably call here, but I sometimes gamble too much. I'd still guess it's close).
75%: 99- a, AK- b

I'm pretty sure calling with 99 is right if villian is pushing 100%. The other situations all seem pretty close to me without looking. (

[wiggs73]

I'll guess...

99 = easy call @ 100%, close call @ 75%.
AK = close call @ 100% (closer than 99), close fold @ 75%.

[RexWoo]

Nice post (my answers would have been very bad)