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#11
10-26-2006, 04:02 AM
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Re: (2-way) bubble calling situation
no, i made an excel sheet, not a program ... and no it's not revolutionary ... and no i'm not killing anywhere ...
The point is that the math is simple. If you are only calling with your top 20% here, you are loosing to those who are calling with their top 48% ... Generally tight calling ranges are correct on the bubble, but in this case your current EV is roughly only 1/3 of 2nd price + 3rd price, and you stand to quadrouple (almost) your stack if you make the call. This is what makes this discussion interesting, because contrary to the general rule, you actually should call loosely in this spot. But if you prefer a tighter calling range, that's fine with me, and I'll love playing you in this spot. 
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#12
10-26-2006, 04:08 AM
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Re: (2-way) bubble calling situation
[ QUOTE ]
no, i made an excel sheet, not a program ... and no it's not revolutionary ... and no i'm not killing anywhere ... The point is that the math is simple. If you are only calling with your top 20% here, you are loosing to those who are calling with their top 48% ... Generally tight calling ranges are correct on the bubble, but in this case your current EV is roughly only 1/3 of 2nd price + 3rd price, and you stand to quadrouple (almost) your stack if you make the call. This is what makes this discussion interesting, because contrary to the general rule, you actually should call loosely in this spot. But if you prefer a tighter calling range, that's fine with me, and I'll love playing you in this spot. [/ QUOTE ] ICM (i.e. what you are saying and what i already said in teh first reply) is vastly overvalueing a call here, as pineapple said. The likely future path of this sng makes a much tighter calling range profitable.
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#13
10-26-2006, 04:29 AM
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Re: (2-way) bubble calling situation
you are of course right because:
I have not considered at all who will be SB/BB the next round, or what the blinds will be, and I am assuming that all players are equal in strength, so the probability of winning always is proportional to your stack size. However, I still think that only calling with your top 20% here would be way to tight. The reason for this is simply that I don't see your EV changing much from it. If you fold this, you'll still soon end up in a coin toss pretty soon. Next hand the current UTG should have a wide calling range (according to me :-)), and if he wins, he will basically take half of your EV from you (assuming you don't play the hand of course). Regarding the 1K discussion you refer to, I think the call with KK was definitely correct.
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#15
10-26-2006, 04:33 AM
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Re: (2-way) bubble calling situation
[ QUOTE ]
you are of course right because: I have not considered at all who will be SB/BB the next round, or what the blinds will be, and I am assuming that all players are equal in strength, so the probability of winning always is proportional to your stack size. However, I still think that only calling with your top 20% here would be way to tight. The reason for this is simply that I don't see your EV changing much from it. If you fold this, you'll still soon end up in a coin toss pretty soon. Next hand the current UTG should have a wide calling range (according to me :-)), and if he wins, he will basically take half of your EV from you (assuming you don't play the hand of course). Regarding the 1K discussion you refer to, I think the call with KK was definitely correct. [/ QUOTE ] Well, look, you could be onto something here but it really needs a more detailed analysis/list of assumptions. I'm far too lazy to do this but have at it if you like.
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