(2-way) bubble calling situation

Gramps · #1 10-25-2006, 09:21 PM

Here's an interesting bubble hand I just encountered. Big stack is pushing *any two* cards here.

$525+$30 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2006/10/25 - 20:29:44 (ET)

UTG (700 in chips)
Button (10175 in chips)
SB (1655 in chips)
BB (970 in chips)

SB posts the ante 25
UTG posts the ante 25**
Button posts the ante 25
BB posts the ante 25

UTG folds
Big STack raises 9400 to 9800
SB folds
BB looks down and sees ____ and calls off his last 545 chips

What's the least BB has to have here to make his call correct if you give big stack a true range of 100%? What if the big stack (whether correct or not) folds his worst ~1/2 hands and only is pushing top 50% here (you've seen evidence from recent/past play that where the BB gets < 3 BB or so in these bubble spots, the big stack will back off a fair amount, etc.).

futuredoc85 · #2 10-25-2006, 09:30 PM

sngpt says call 41% if hes pushing 100%, and call 20% if hes pushing 50%, but when im playing i call a little tighter in both situations i think.

aditya · #3 10-25-2006, 09:40 PM

Eeek...Nice situation and nice post. If you're on a tight range here, then UTG goes to 250 next time he's BB and we go to 220. And the next hand after that, we're down to 195 and he's down to 25 (but we have to assume that someone's called an all-in by this time, and we sure as hell know it's not going to be the SB in this hand cause he's folding all hands till someone is eliminated, or unless he gets AA or KK (should he call or not BigJoe?)

100 range for button = 22+, Ax+ K7+; Q8+

50% range = 66+, A8+ ,K10+, QJ+

AM I too tight here? I figure since UTG is worse of than us, we could actually be pretty tight with our calling ranges. What do you think of my ranges?

Shillx · #4 10-25-2006, 10:10 PM

Man I dunno but pretty damn tight considering that the BB can outlast UTG. Uhhh certainly not the 41% that SNGPT suggests. Not even close. Maybe JJ+? Maybe even less?

Gramps · #5 10-25-2006, 11:29 PM

I liked this bubble too, it seemed tough to me, because on the one hand you can force UTG to be the first all-in player, but on the other hand if you can call big stack on this hand and win, you jack your % of 2nd place finishes way up (on top of almost assuredly getting top-3), and a little bit of increase in 1st place % (which drops to close to zero if you fold and play the waiting game)...but is it worth enough to take on a higher % of 4th places...? Kind of a tough one when you're trying to grasp it all with 30 seconds or less to act...

futuredoc85 · #6 10-25-2006, 11:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I liked this bubble too, it seemed tough to me, because on the one hand you can force UTG to be the first all-in player, but on the other hand if you can call big stack on this hand and win, you jack your % of 2nd place finishes way up (on top of almost assuredly getting top-3), and a little bit of increase in 1st place % (which drops to close to zero if you fold and play the waiting game)...but is it worth enough to take on a higher % of 4th places...? Kind of a tough one when you're trying to grasp it all with 30 seconds or less to act...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a good spot. after some more thought, im calling tighter than sngpt but a bit looser than shilx. probably like 20% vs a 100% range

pineapple888 · #7 10-26-2006, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I liked this bubble too, it seemed tough to me, because on the one hand you can force UTG to be the first all-in player, but on the other hand if you can call big stack on this hand and win, you jack your % of 2nd place finishes way up (on top of almost assuredly getting top-3), and a little bit of increase in 1st place % (which drops to close to zero if you fold and play the waiting game)...but is it worth enough to take on a higher % of 4th places...? Kind of a tough one when you're trying to grasp it all with 30 seconds or less to act...

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a good spot. after some more thought, im calling tighter than sngpt but a bit looser than shilx. probably like 20% vs a 100% range

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Top 15% or so for me, QJs or better, not sure how to quantify this just based on gut feel, tighten up CONSIDERABLY if he is not on 100%, prob. A9s+ whatever that works out to be.

HedCec · #8 10-26-2006, 03:16 AM

The way to handle these bubble situations are always pretty similar:

1. Calculate your tournament EV if you fold.
2. Calclate your tournament EV if you call and win.
3. From that calculate how often you must win for the call to be better than the fold.

In this case your EV if you fold will be roughly 13 $ (I've made an excel sheet that does the calculations for me - and I'm assuming payout to be 50-30-20).

If you call and win your tournament EV will be rouhly 25,5 $.

This means you must win around 52% of the time for the call to be correct, and against 2 random cards that means hands like J7s (52,3%) K4 (52,3%) and better.

So, you should call very often in this spot ...

pineapple888 · #9 10-26-2006, 03:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The way to handle these bubble situations are always pretty similar:

1. Calculate your tournament EV if you fold.
2. Calclate your tournament EV if you call and win.
3. From that calculate how often you must win for the call to be better than the fold.

In this case your EV if you fold will be roughly 13 $ (I've made an excel sheet that does the calculations for me - and I'm assuming payout to be 50-30-20).

If you call and win your tournament EV will be rouhly 25,5 $.

This means you must win around 52% of the time for the call to be correct, and against 2 random cards that means hands like J7s (52,3%) K4 (52,3%) and better.

So, you should call very often in this spot ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it's not nearly this simple, there are bubble dynamics/critical paths to work through, we just had a huge thread on a 1K hand that was somewhat similar. A straight ICM/SNGPT calculation clearly overrates calling here, possibly by quite a bit.

futuredoc85 · #10 10-26-2006, 03:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The way to handle these bubble situations are always pretty similar:

1. Calculate your tournament EV if you fold.
2. Calclate your tournament EV if you call and win.
3. From that calculate how often you must win for the call to be better than the fold.

In this case your EV if you fold will be roughly 13 $ (I've made an excel sheet that does the calculations for me - and I'm assuming payout to be 50-30-20).

If you call and win your tournament EV will be rouhly 25,5 $.

This means you must win around 52% of the time for the call to be correct, and against 2 random cards that means hands like J7s (52,3%) K4 (52,3%) and better.

So, you should call very often in this spot ...

[/ QUOTE ]

wait... you made a program that calculates EV of calling vs EV of folding? And you regularly apply this knowledge in SNGS? I bet your killing STTS with this revolutionary knowledge!