Home advantage and capping.

[rjp]

It's good that you realize home field advantage isn't something you can express as points (especially in football), as the numbers just don't add up right. In some cases you're giving too little and in others too much. Taking this a step further and treating all games as a winning percentage and you should be able to quantify home field advantage much better than the average Joe.

That said, home field advantage isn't something I've studied all that deeply. What I do know, however, is that it might bet better to look at it as away team disadvantage. Traveling and staying in hotels in an unfamiliar place takes its toll. It isn't always about how loud the home crowd cheers (or boos)....

[MicroBob]

"It isn't always about how loud the home crowd cheers (or boos).... "


QFT.
As I mentioned in another thread, I did my fair share of traveling around in mid-major womens basketball. Crowds of 300 or so in 8k+ seat arenas.
But I would estimate that home-court advantage was still worth roughly 3 points even in that kind of league. This was especially easy to see because they would play most of their in-conference opponents at home and on the road and you could just look at the results.

Not necessarily comparable to the NFL of course. But it's all a part of human and athlete psychology I believe.

[Rustjive]

[ QUOTE ]
What I do know, however, is that it might bet better to look at it as away team disadvantage. Traveling and staying in hotels in an unfamiliar place takes its toll. It isn't always about how loud the home crowd cheers (or boos)....

[/ QUOTE ]

How meaningful is that (not rhetorically)? For many cases, there may indeed be no home field advantage, although it can't really be an overwhelming majority. Home Field Advantage at places like Arrowhead and Lambeau are well documented, and while it may not be particular to a certain franchise (ala x plays well at home because of fans), teams are sometimes built for the type of physical environment (dome/turf combination) the venue offers.

The thing I really mean, however, is that the NFL in the vast majority of scenarios have a binary input - you are either playing at home or you are playing at the road. If we treat it as a road disadvantage instead of a home field advantage - po-tay-toes, po-tah-toes, right? Then add the possibility of there actually being real home field advantages as mentioned above, then what did we gain moving off the 3 point baseline? I certainly don't deny that HFA is complex, has tons of factors and generally the 3 points doesn't do it justice, but you have to work from somewhere, no?

[rjp]

Rustjive, I just wanted to point out that there's much more to home field advantage than the infamous "12th man".

Teams built for specific environments is a very good point and should be taken into consideration. This obviously doesn't hold for basketball, but a good thing to know for football.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
It's good that you realize home field advantage isn't something you can express as points (especially in football), as the numbers just don't add up right. In some cases you're giving too little and in others too much. Taking this a step further and treating all games as a winning percentage and you should be able to quantify home field advantage much better than the average Joe.

That said, home field advantage isn't something I've studied all that deeply. What I do know, however, is that it might bet better to look at it as away team disadvantage. Traveling and staying in hotels in an unfamiliar place takes its toll. It isn't always about how loud the home crowd cheers (or boos)....

[/ QUOTE ]

A flat % adjustment is errant as well (Not that you suggest this method) since HFA is less important for teams that are huge faves or dogs already. You might actually be better off in a sport (speculation from here out) doing a cents adjustment to a line for something like baseball rather than a % adjustment.