#1
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Basic equity/pot odds math question
A friend just asked me about this and I tried to think it through but I'm not sure if I have it right so please correct me where/if I'm wrong.
NL 0.5/1, $100 stacks. Hero is dealt JJ UTG, opens for $4 folded to SB who raises to $12 BB folds Is it profitable to 4-bet to $40 here? The problem being.... let's say he only 3-bets premium hands (QQ/KK/AA/AK). Then it's obviously a mistake to 4-bet as it prices us in to call a shove (36% equity), right? But... if we assume his 3-betting range also includes JJ/TT/99/AQ. Now our equity is about 50%. Let's assume he always folds the second range to a 4-bet and always shoves the first range. 10 times. 5 times he'll fold, giving us 5 x $17 ($1 blind + $4 open + $12 raise) = $85 5 times he'll shove and we're priced to call. 5 x our $100 to win 5 $200 pots w/ 36% equity.... 0.36 x $1000 gives us $360 right. So $500 invested, $360 won. That shows a negative profit of -$140. Totally this gives us $85 - $140 = -$55 over 10 hands which would lead us to the fact that 4-betting is not profitable assuming this specific range. Am I on the right track so far? |
#2
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Re: Basic equity/pot odds math question
No takers?
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#3
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Re: Basic equity/pot odds math question
you have to do the number of combinations for each one,
a real easy way to do it is highlight them in stove and see what #'s pop up, so it's not 5/10 times it's... total 3b range: 5.1% premo 3b range: 2.6% 2.6%/5.1%=50.9% he shoves (in this case you're real close but for future) so 50.9%(-$140)+49.1%(+$85)= ~ -$55 that's how you do it. edit/i didnt take into account you had jj and there's only one combo left, so 5.1% should be 4.8% etc |
#4
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Re: Basic equity/pot odds math question
also, to figure out how wide his 3b range must be to breakeven on a push... it's
X=% he pushes with QQ+, AK X(EV if called)+(1-X)(pot)=0 so if he only pushes say 25% of his 3b range, you're likely +ev |
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