overpair vs. TAG & poss. turned str8

[Watkins]

Button is villain here, he's aggressive and has stats of 20/10/2.8, preflop I've seen him play pairs like 33 aggressively from EP but not sure if that's standard for him.

How do I play this turn? One of the obvious draws has come in but I've improved to an OESD and may still be ahead.

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10.75BB, 3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero .....

[BigBadBabar]

checks

[Watkins]

[ QUOTE ]
checks

[/ QUOTE ] and calls 1?

[BigBadBabar]

utg1 looks like flushdraw but i don't think button is capping flop with a ton of things we beat, so the turn card didn't change our handstrength relative to anyone else except we picked up a draw, so let's draw cheaply.

[BigBadBabar]

i doubt it's gonna be 2 back to us

[BigBadBabar]

i don't know if betting and hoping a button raise puts utg1 to a tough decision is really good for us mathwise or not. if he's on pure fd he'll prob coldcall anyway.

[BigBadBabar]

yea i don't think betting turn is right

[BigBadBabar]

okay given your stats and read i think his likely hand is 55 or maybe jt. jj or tt he'd 3bet pf most likely and kq seems less likely just because you have two of the queens. i suppose it's also possible that he has some kind of big combo draw but that seems a bit less likely since i think utg1 has the pure nfd.

[Point Blank]

I'm checking the turn ...

IMO: BTN has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], JTs, TT, 55(maybe), A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (maybe AK plays it's the same too, capping for a free card with bit overs and a gutshot)

I don't think I would be too concerned with the 9 helping BTN (you have both of the Queens that would make him play KQ this way)

[BigBadBabar]

i think button 3bets ajss or any ak here, with those stats