NE Patriots FA and Draft (ie offseason) thread

Kneel B4 Zod · #1 03-05-2007, 10:01 AM

I talked about some of this in the other thread, but w/e.

I think the Pats have had a great offseason so far. Coming into the offseason, they had a ton of cap space available, and they have been aggresive in using it. The key moves:

1. Franchising Asante Samuel. This cost us around $7.5m for this year. Given the (lack of) CB depth, this was a good move. Considering how much Clements got in FA, this looks even better. Of course, I think the prospects for a long term deal are hurt now.

2. Signing Adalius Thomas. LB was the single biggest need for the Pats, and they got the best LB (and player) available for a relatively cap friendly deal (5yr, 35m). This guy is a perfect fit - he can play all over the field, understands complex gameplans, and is all about t-e-a-m.

3. Signing Wes Welker to a 6 year deal at about $3m PA, not including the poison pill $20m 7th year. This deal will be incredibly dumb for Miami to match, so I consider it done. For those questioning the price paid of the 2nd round pick, here are the #60 picks for the last 7 years. I think the EV of this pick is much lower than Welker.

2006 Maurice Drew, RB UCLA
2005 Kelvin Hayden, CB Illinois
2004 Courtney Watson MLB Notre Dame
2003 Tyrone Calico, WR Tenessee
2002 Anton Paleopi DE Nevada Las Vegas
2001 Andre Dyson CB UTAH
2000 Brad Meester C Northern Iowa

This gives us a very quick slot guy who can be a release for Brady, as well as versatile return guy. This is important b/c they wont want Maroney to return kicks with him taking up more of the running game, b/c...

4. Waiving Corey Dillon/Signing Sammy Morris. The team is hurt in the short run by waiving Dillon, but this saves them money for this year. They picked up a capable replacement type guy in Morris, who is a good blocker and ST guy as well.

5. not signing UFA Daniel Graham/signing Kyle Brady. Typical Pats move here: they replace an expensive blocking TE with a less expensive blocking TE. Are they a better team now? No. But these are the type of 'retain 90% of the production for 60% of the price' type of deals that you need to make in the NFL.

Cap status: We'll probably have $8-12 million in cap space left after all the above deals are done. We need about $6m for draft picks and rookies. So, I think we may extend a guy like Wilfork or Warren, but probably no more FA signing are on the way.

Draft:

They have addressed the OLB need, but still need an ILB badly. The other top areas of need are CB/S/WR, but I don't expect the Pats to pick a WR with their 1st rounder now that they have used their 2nd pick on Welker. I think they go with 'best available' at ILB/S/CB with their 2 picks, in that order. Then go with WR or RB in the 3rd round/later picks.

Looking like a great offseason so far.

brettbrettr · #2 03-05-2007, 10:09 AM

They've done well. I'd like to see what happens when they add Randy Moss.

Colt McCoy · #3 03-05-2007, 10:11 AM

So you're saying the Welker deal is very back-end loaded? I heard the deal was $38mil over 7 years and giving up a two. I love Welker, but that seemed insane.

Kneel B4 Zod · #4 03-05-2007, 10:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So you're saying the Welker deal is very back-end loaded? I heard the deal was $38mil over 7 years and giving up a two. I love Welker, but that seemed insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Years 1-6 are about $3m each, totaling $18m. Year 7 is $20m. This 7th year is NOT guaranteed, but would have to be guaranteed by Miami if they matched the deal. This is the 'poison pill' which is still allowed in the NFL for unknown reasons. but hey, those are the current rules.

edit: it might actually be years 1-5 are about $3m each, and years 6 and 7 are $10m each. the effect is about the same. exact details of this contract are unknown.

related note: if the Dolphins had tendered Welker for 1.8m instead of 1.3m, it would have cost a team a #1 to sign him.
For the Patriots, that means the #28 instead of the #60 - ie it wouldn't have happened.

Colt McCoy · #5 03-05-2007, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Years 1-6 are about $3m each, totaling $18m. Year 7 is $20m. This 7th year is NOT guaranteed, but would have to be guaranteed by Miami if they matched the deal. This is the 'poison pill' which is still allowed in the NFL for unknown reasons. but hey, those are the current rules.

edit: it might actually be years 1-5 are about $3m each, and years 6 and 7 are $10m each. the effect is about the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got it. That makes a lot more sense. The Phins would have to be stupid to even consider. Not bad for the Pats though. Welker is a decent receiver and return guy, and he's just fearless in the slot.

Kneel B4 Zod · #6 03-05-2007, 10:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
They've done well. I'd like to see what happens when they add Randy Moss.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what to think about this. They obv. need to restructure the deal. And deal with Al Davis, and who the hell knows what he will demand. I mean I would love him on my team under the right circumstances.

Toro · #7 03-05-2007, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They've done well. I'd like to see what happens when they add Randy Moss.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what to think about this. They obv. need to restructure the deal. And deal with Al Davis, and who the hell knows what he will demand. I mean I would love him on my team under the right circumstances.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see the pats giving up anything greater than a 3rd for him, maybe not even that good, and of course he would have to agree to restructure. I think it's a long shot at best.

brettbrettr · #8 03-05-2007, 10:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They've done well. I'd like to see what happens when they add Randy Moss.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what to think about this. They obv. need to restructure the deal. And deal with Al Davis, and who the hell knows what he will demand. I mean I would love him on my team under the right circumstances.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see the pats giving up anything greater than a 3rd for him, maybe not even that good, and of course he would have to agree to restructure. I think it's a long shot at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he'd do an incentive laden thing, similar to the contract Lavar signed with the NYG this season. If he goes off, he'll make $7M or whatever. If not, adios come the off-season. He has to realize that if he wants out of Oakland he's got to restructure his deal. For anyone.

bottomset · #9 03-05-2007, 04:46 PM

these poison pills contracts need to stop, I'm amazed they still allow it

Kneel B4 Zod · #10 03-05-2007, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
these poison pills contracts need to stop, I'm amazed they still allow it

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, it's really unfair to the teams with a bunch of RFA's. otoh, teams probably shouldn't get so cute with these guys if they actually want to keep them. as I said above, Miami could have avoided this situation for $500k. Seattle made a similar mistake last year with Hutchinson.