Bellagio $1500; ITM hand vs Brandon Cantu

[billyjex]

something like 30 left out of 540 in the first event of the five diamond classic @ bellagio. $1500+90.

they are doing something stupid, by redrawing every time 9 players are eliminated in the money, so I am at a table where I don't really have any reads, and they don't really have reads on me. I'd guess I've played 2 orbits here. I am playing somewhat tight, though restole about 5 hands ago in a CO vs BB confrontation and took it down pf.

Brandon has played pretty aggressively, raising 4 or 5 hands. Other than that I've never playd with him and don't really know how he plays; he seems to open raise quite a bit.

2 hands ago Brandon raised UTG; a guy in LP called, and pushed over Brandon's flop bet and brandon folded, obviously frustrated.

Basically, this comes down to a math problem; however, I am not quite sure what range I can give him here. What I have said above is pretty much all the info I had to work with.

Blinds are 1000/2000 w/ 300 ante. 8 handed. Avg stack 55k.

I have 37k in the hijack. I am dealt 77 and raise to 6400.

Brandon is in the SB w/ about 60-70k. He asks me how much my raise is, I tell him. Then in a pretty relaxed way, says he's all in. Folded back to me.

I have to put in 30k to win 48k or so. Any guesses to his range here? Call or fold?

[swede554]

His range obv depends largely on how he views you. If he thinks of you as an LAG player and assigns you a wide range his range is wider and vice versa. Default range from an aggro BB here though is probably 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJ+ and vs that range you're equity is 38.1% (pokerstoved). So that's pretty close to the odds the pot is laying you right? I suck at math, but it feels about right. Combined with the fact that you're stack is below avg, and if you fold, you're left with about 15bb, I would call. Probably. It's close.

Andy

[A10Chief]

Seems like a good spot for a resteal on his part. Your raise left enough behind for a fold, which he might have viewed as weakness. If his range is AQ+, JJ+ you're 1.5:1. Pots laying 1.6:1. I imagine his range is much wider if he's restealing, so I think this is a call, and obviously hope you're flipping with great pot odds. It seems like a good time double through and get in position for the FT.

[2win]

I got knocked out at 1k/2k level (40th). Call

[betgo]

Given your late position raise, I think you have odds to call at 1.6-1. Villain is an aggressive professional. Even if he is only pushing 99+,AQ+, you almost have odds to call. Since he may be restealing, a call should be cEV+.

[shaniac]

It's a tough one, but I think I fold. Not sure exactly what his range is, but I'm pretty sure 77 is in bad shape vs it. (That's my half-assed 10AM analysis).

The redraw thing does indeed suck.

[Ansky]

I disagree w/ shane I call here. Given that you raised in lmp and he is in the blinds it makes his range wide enough to call imo.

[billyjex]

Yeah, I did fold at the time; I later told a friend I think it was a call, and after makign this post, played around with pokerstove and found it to be an easy call IMO, because I had break even odds even agaisnt his tightest range.

I really need to play with pokerstove move; I underestimated my equity w/ 77 vs the tighest range by a few percent.

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I did fold at the time; I later told a friend I think it was a call, and after makign this post, played around with pokerstove and found it to be an easy call IMO, because I had break even odds even agaisnt his tightest range.

I really need to play with pokerstove move; I underestimated my equity w/ 77 vs the tighest range by a few percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you were working without the benefit of reads, but from the hands I played with him at USPC, and the mannerisms you desscribed during the hand, I would guess he has a big hand here and you are "coinflipping at best." I hate that phrase, but I believe it applies here. Being break-even against his tightest range isn't necessarily enough of a reason to warrant a call. It might be, but you have to determine that based on the flow of the tournament (which I realize is disrupted by the table-break ninsense) and how easy you think it will be to steal blinds, or find a better resteal spot. I tend to think there are better resteal spots to come.

[NoahSD]

I think his range should be wide enough for this to be a call. It's close though.