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Old 10-22-2007, 10:26 PM
JaredL JaredL is offline
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Default Case for South Florida and Virginia over USC, Oregon and Oklahoma?

I was looking through the latest BCS ranking and noticed that there is a huge disparity in the computer and human polls with a few teams. Of the one-loss teams, Virginia and South Florida are the most underrated by the humans compared to the computers. Virginia is ranked 21 in the AP poll and 6th in the BCS computer average. South Florida is 11th in the AP and 5th in computer average.

On the other end are USC, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Oregon. USC is tied for 9th in the AP and 21st in computer average, Oklahoma is 4th and 14th, WVU 6th and tied for 10th, and Oregon 5th and 9th.

Of particular interest to me are USC, Oregon and Oklahoma since South Florida beat WVU.

South Florida has big wins at Auburn and at home against West Virginia. Their only other tough game was a loss at Rutgers last Thursday. Virginia lost their opener at Wyoming and has since beaten powerhouses Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech and Maryland. If this were basketball that would be quite a run.

USC has the hard part of their schedule to go (Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Arizona State and UCLA left). Their loss to Stanford at home is the worst loss of all the teams mentioned in this post. They won impressively at Nebraska which right now is their only big win other than the super impressive shutout against Notre Dame, who have an offensive genius as their head coach. Oregon crushed Michigan in the Big House, though that win was diminished by Michigan having lost the week before to Appalachian State. It looks better now that Michigan has won 6 straight since. Otherwise the ducks have beaten mediocre or worse teams by a lot. Oklahoma lost at Colorado and have big wins at Texas and versus Missouri.

Looking at the computer polls individually, South Florida is ranked better than Oklahoma and USC in every single poll and ranked better than Oregon in every poll but one, where Oregon is ranked one slot higher. Virginia is ranked better than all 3 of those teams in 4 polls. In the other 2 they are ranked worse than USC, OU and the U of O in one and better than USC and OU but two slots below Oregon in the other.

So South Florida is easily the best ranked team of those 5, followed by Virginia, Oregon, Oklahoma and USC.

What is it about these teams and computer rankings that make it so? I can somewhat understand South Florida since they had big wins at Auburn and versus West Virginia and that the computers don't suffer from being biased toward recent games. However, IMO the rest of their schedule is weaker than the Pac 10 teams or OU. Virginia I don't understand at all as their loss is pretty bad and their wins aren't impressive.

What do you guys think? Is there a good case for South Florida and Virginia over USC, Oregon and Oklahoma?
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