Tough spot OoP with AQs

[jr4284]

I had just taken a sizeable pot off of the villain when he played A9 on a AJ3 board pretty passively vs. my AK. Only been at the table for 2 orbits.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Hero folds.

[jstill]

this seems ok if hes not the type who's gonna bet red underpairs here (ive seen it from some bad players more likely when theyre oop tho) or KQ, unlikely based on the last hand ud seen him play tho kinda (not much of a read tho)

im not too sure tho tbh

[mjkidd]

This is OK, but I think you need to sometimes donk the turn here.

[brasilstu]

Sorry I'm new here.

Could explain why you think calling (and not raising) the flop is the correct play. And the turn fold.

Like I say I'm a noob, but this is the level I play at and I do OK. TPGK, backdoor flush draw, not worth a raise/check raise on the flop?

:-)

[jstill]

we re not doing very well against his range that will give us more action, QQ or TT will call a sb more yes but thats about it (atleast on AJT u could argue a raise to get a bit more value from QQ KK that will ck call the turn i probably still just call tho and bet when ck'd to). everything else he plays this way (raises and caps vs a 3bet oop) will either fold to a raise (88 99 if thats in his range) or punish us with more bets later in the hand when we raise (JJ AJs AK KK AA ect ect). We really beat almost nothing that will call down 3 streets unless hes a maniac and caps Ax suited or KQ and then gives too much action vs further aggression.

Usually in this spot i feel like im splitting at best or hes got 6 or 2 outs so I play wa/wb and calldown unhappily, so id never consider raising this flop.

[kaby]

I just call down, we have decent equity vs a TT/AJs+/AQo+ capping range (maybe too broad though, kinda hard to say). The flush isn't exactly scary because a the hearts on the board are of such high rank. I agree we are in a worse shape on the turn because when he bets again his range is stronger now, however I still think we have the equity to call down, especially without any decent reads/stats.

@brazil: I don't think raising is good anywhere because it will get us owned when behind and villain can get off a worse hand cheaply.

[brasilstu]

So not reraising the flop, OK.

As far as folding the turn; Pokerstoke gives you 49.9% equity against a 5% range (99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo).

[jstill]

I think that range is too broad and u cant just apply pstove like that here. he is definitely more likely to bet this turn in position with AK than KQ 99 TT or QQ for sure (esp when he has a flush redraw). If u make his range tighter, JJ AJ AK AQ AA KK and we still have enough equity to call the turn that says something different I feel.

Even then though if we have enough equity to call the turn folding could still be correct. I dont think we can look at this from straight equity, being oop our implied odds are definitely negative, basically I think when we call a river bet we chop at best the very few times he ends up having AQ so that needs to be factored into the decision somehow. If we have enough equity vs the tighter range and could always play the river perfectly (fold when we re beat, which here would be tough when he bets just becuz of chop equity the rare times he has AQ) then calling would be correct, but we cant assume either yet I dont think (that we have the equity against his range that caps and bets the turn on this board and that the river expectation isnt negative enough to outweigh what mite be a slightly +EV turn call). Again im not super confident on my response in this thread but those are a couple things to think about anyways when trying to make this decision and others like it in the future. folding the turn could be incorrect, just kinda responding intuitively?