NL50 - TP hand in reraised pot

[HugovB]

I got a comment in the microbrew thread, that I never posted hands. So this is a first for me (almost) and I'll try to post some more tough hands, because a 10 buyin downswing can't be just variance.

Villian didn't do anything strange, 22/18/2 over ~30 hands so no real reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($34.75)
BB ($28.85)
UTG ($52.80)
MP ($71.80)
Hero ($49.10)
Button ($83.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP calls $4.

Flop: ($12.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, MP calls $8.

Turn: ($28.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $19.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??</font>

Push or fold?

A lot of the time this is a set, but I raised pf, denying him good odds to hit a set, and there are a ton of Qd hands he'll try to get AI here (I think).
Is folding here weak, or is shoving here a -EV wannabe hero move?

[Khumalo]

Re-raise pf a bit larger, say $7 or $8, it makes it harder for people to adjust too quickly if your range is, shall we say, creative, and if you're 3-betting purely from pf strength, for e.g. with only AQ+ and JJ+, then getting more $ in preflop is to your advantage.

It's too bad you have no reads on MP. If there are no signs of incompetence after 30 hands (his stats per se are not yet that meaningful) -- if he hasn't done tell-tale things like limping from EP with SCs, bad Aces, or trash, having poor bet sizing, min-donking, making spewy call downs, etc. -- then I default to a conservative stance against him and begin to worry just a bit when he calls pf. I'll c-bet that kind of flop mostly, occasionally check behind if I have a backdoor draw and want to keep the pot small.

When he calls my flop c-bet I'm inclined to put him on TT+, AKdd, but will include some random weaker stuff in his range, maybe JTdd / 99 / Adxd / 67 (meh).

When the turn falls and he leads, you're suddenly in a bind. It's very hard to find a fold here readless, since you were fortunate enough to hit your hand, and shoving or even calling turn and any river *can't be that bad* in a vaccuum, especially at these limits versus an unknown.

But consider: villain has shown a kind of strength both pf and on a fairly raggy flop, and is displaying a lot of it on the turn. It looks like he's trying to put money in on a board that's become too draw-heavy rather than that he's trying to bluff you OOP. You're repping a big hand and it takes a bad/reckless player to bet a good draw (+ pair) or bluff into you on the turn like that when he knows it's then so logical for you to shove over him with your AA-QQ and wreck his odds. Plus, a guy planning a bluff is more likely to CR that flop. So folding in the absence of any favorable reads is a little thin, but it's a viable option, in this particular instance, imo.