NLTRN 55: bluffing the river with a missed draw

[emKay]

$55 on Stars. Villain plays fairly solid.
I cbet this flop most of the time. The gutshot makes me more inclined to check behind because I can't call a checkraise.
FWIW, he thinked fairly long before calling the turn.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (2 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t1650)
Hero (t1350)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t180) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t180) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t120</font>, BB calls t120.

River: (t420) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t390</font>

[BarryLyndon]

I think it's fine because he could think that A high and K high are the best hand here on the turn. Read dependent based on other play, but generally fine.

Barry

[jay_shark]

This is a pretty good flop to make a c-bet . If you get called , you have a good idea of where you stand . Since you checked the flop , betting the turn is fine . Otr , you need to win about 48% of the time to show a profit . In most cases I would probably just check it if I had checked the flop .

[ChicagoRy]

If villain is solid and non stationy there's enough stuff that missed to probably do this. Players think more in terms of their hand than yours usually, but does he get away from A high here? If you're not sure he can get away from K high here then forget it.

Have you seen weak hands preflop OOP in these pots from villain yet?

[Landonfan]

If solid means weak/tight, then I like it. If solid means good, then no.

They are very few hands to represent here.

[pushing22]

cBet flop. when the spade comes, 2 barrell it. good fold chance on 2nd barrell, and if you hit river he has no idea

[hockeyf]

Hate it, he is so often not on draw himself.

[ChicagoRy]

I don't necessarily like the bet size. 320-390 isn't going to make a whole lot of difference in my experience with these players. It's going to come down to how often he floats the turn with A/K and how often he decides to believe you on the river. If he's not floating the turn with a high card you can forget this bluff against most villains.