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#1
11-02-2007, 01:16 PM
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Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
A couple of interesting hands have generated a diversity of opinions OP.
My 2c: Hand 1: Villian LIMPED PF AND didn't cap. No evidence of KK. flop c/r is most often associated with 2 pair. Simply put, will you be right about that 2/3's of the time, because if you are wrong 1 bet will cost you 2 unless you are willing to raise/fold. Further, from Villian's POV, the dog hand (K9) would put him ahead if he puts you on AK. I raise the river on hand 1. Hand 2: Flop raise did give you a free card. H/U I'm OK with it but if you got 3 bet would you fold? On the river, Villian is re-testing after your free card. He has something. Live, I would raise this river as well. 
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#2
11-02-2007, 01:48 PM
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Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
Whoops, I misread hand 1; I didn't realize Villain simply limped and then coldcalled preflop.
In this case I guess villain could have a counterfieted two pair here as often as a set (K9 being most likely, K2 also possible; does villain play 92?). I think I would be tempted to raise river but moreso against an opponent I know would be weak enough not to 3bet their set; I'd hate to have to call a 3bet here.
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#3
11-02-2007, 01:48 PM
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Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: Villian LIMPED PF AND didn't cap. No evidence of KK. flop c/r is most often associated with 2 pair. Simply put, will you be right about that 2/3's of the time, because if you are wrong 1 bet will cost you 2 unless you are willing to raise/fold. Further, from Villian's POV, the dog hand (K9) would put him ahead if he puts you on AK. I raise the river on hand 1. [/ QUOTE ] This seems spewtastic or at least highly optimistic to me.. and is another example of "value bet syndrome" (VBS). The OP has described the villain here as passive. He calls two cold PF and then caps the flop.. not something I think a passive would do with two pair on a board containing two spades. I think it is the villain, and not OP, who is value betting the turn and the river here. How do we not believe that a passive villain has a set once he goes berzerk on the flop?
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#4
11-02-2007, 03:58 PM
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Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
[ QUOTE ]
The OP has described the villain here as passive. He calls two cold PF and then caps the flop. not something I think a passive would do with two pair on a board containing two spades. I think it is the villain, and not OP, who is value betting the turn and the river here. How do we not believe that a passive villain has a set once he goes berzerk on the flop? [/ QUOTE ] 1) Particularly live, I see people repeatedly OVERvaluing their opponents cards. 2) Sets remain relatively rare compared to flush draws that "accidentally" spike two pairs. Yes, the capped flop is a BIG concern. But I think the odds favor 2 pairs that just got counterfeited versus the set when it comes to betting on the river. If your read says set, then just call. If the OP says he read "SET," I'd just call. But reading sets live, how often are we wrong?
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#5
11-02-2007, 04:32 PM
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Re: 8/16 Live Thin Value Raises
[ QUOTE ]
2) Sets remain relatively rare compared to flush draws that "accidentally" spike two pairs. Yes, the capped flop is a BIG concern. But I think the odds favor 2 pairs that just got counterfeited versus the set when it comes to betting on the river. If your read says set, then just call. If the OP says he read "SET," I'd just call. But reading sets live, how often are we wrong? [/ QUOTE ] What do we do if 3bet on the river by a passive who has check/called down top pair before? Can we possibly fold this pot (which I believe is > 20 BB)?
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