Brian Griese to start next week

[TheNoodleMan]

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If this guy is so great, why isn't he still starting for Denver or Tampa Bay?

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He lost his job in TB to a torn ACL.

[BigPoppa]

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From 88-92 he had 73tds and 80 INTs. The idea that he always carried bad teams on his back until TD got there is fairly dubious.


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I doubt you watched much of Denver in the pre-TD days, but I sure did.
Numbers can't tell you the whole story (or even most of it) during those years.


Reeves' system was always to run the ball and keep it close for 3 quarters, then expect Elway to win it in the 4th. This is not going to lend itself to a good QB rating, nor to a great TD-Int ratio (lots of running in the Red Zone, lots of desperation long balls as time ran out). If Elway had played somewhere like Miami under Shula, he would've broken every passing record there was.

Without Elway, the team would just fall apart. One year he got hurt with the Broncos 4-0 and up 14 against Minnesota. They lost 6 or so straight while he was injured, and still almost made the playoffs once he got back. If any QB can ever be described as carrying a team on his back, it was Elways for most of his career. His first 3 Superbowl teams wouldn't have even made the playoffs with a meh QB.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Neil Lomax 82.68
Dave Kreig 81.50
Randall Cunningham 81.47
Boomer Esiason 81.06
Warren Moon 80.90


or if you prefer a more modern example:

Daunte Culpepper 90.75
Chad Pennington 89.32
Tom Brady 88.36

There is simply no way get around the fact that passer rating doesn't come close to getting a full view of QB impact. No matter how many times someone like Kurt Warner holds the ball way too long, gets sacked and fumbles, it will never tarnish his passer rating.

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I agree with this, overall, just disputing the use of Unitas/Blake.

Edit: Chad Pennington was one of the best QBs in the league before his arm got shredded to bits, and the same with Daunte before he only had one leg. Brady never really flourished for a couple years. Obviously now Brady is far better than those guys, but I think you'll find that both Culpepper and Pennington had years where they were far better than Brady.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Neil Lomax 82.68
Dave Kreig 81.50
Randall Cunningham 81.47
Boomer Esiason 81.06
Warren Moon 80.90


or if you prefer a more modern example:

Daunte Culpepper 90.75
Chad Pennington 89.32
Tom Brady 88.36

There is simply no way get around the fact that passer rating doesn't come close to getting a full view of QB impact. No matter how many times someone like Kurt Warner holds the ball way too long, gets sacked and fumbles, it will never tarnish his passer rating.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, overall, just disputing the use of Unitas/Blake.

Edit: Chad Pennington was one of the best QBs in the league before his arm got shredded to bits, and the same with Daunte before he only had one leg. Brady never really flourished for a couple years. Obviously now Brady is far better than those guys, but I think you'll find that both Culpepper and Pennington had years where they were far better than Brady.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pennington is still putting up big passer ratings. He is sitting at 121 right now. You don't need the big arm to do it.

Culpepper gets credit for his arm, but passer rating doesn't care at all that he is one of the the most prolific fumblers in NFL history. Kreig also gets a pass in this area.

[Jack of Arcades]

Yeah, it misses key parts (Sacks + fumbles, too much weight on touchdowns, not enough weight on first downs, needs more emphasis on ypa and less on completion %).

[Spellmen]

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If this guy is so great, why isn't he still starting for Denver or Tampa Bay? He wasn't that great. He had some good years and not-so-good years. QB rating favors West Coast offenses.

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Why is his mediocrity being mentioned and compared to other QBs. He doesn't need to be good, he just needs to be better than Rex

[vhawk01]

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John Elway kinda sucked for most of his career, though.

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He was only the winningest QB in history until this year, often carrying teams on his back that would've gone 4-12 without him. Yep, he sucked.

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Your argument is that QB rating is flawed and that WINS is a superior metric of QB ability?

[vhawk01]

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From 88-92 he had 73tds and 80 INTs. The idea that he always carried bad teams on his back until TD got there is fairly dubious.


[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt you watched much of Denver in the pre-TD days, but I sure did.
Numbers can't tell you the whole story (or even most of it) during those years.


Reeves' system was always to run the ball and keep it close for 3 quarters, then expect Elway to win it in the 4th. This is not going to lend itself to a good QB rating, nor to a great TD-Int ratio (lots of running in the Red Zone, lots of desperation long balls as time ran out). If Elway had played somewhere like Miami under Shula, he would've broken every passing record there was.

Without Elway, the team would just fall apart. One year he got hurt with the Broncos 4-0 and up 14 against Minnesota. They lost 6 or so straight while he was injured, and still almost made the playoffs once he got back. If any QB can ever be described as carrying a team on his back, it was Elways for most of his career. His first 3 Superbowl teams wouldn't have even made the playoffs with a meh QB.

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The nicest part about "numbers can't tell you the whole story" is that you are then allowed to make up whatever you want and no one can possibly argue with you.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Neil Lomax 82.68
Dave Kreig 81.50
Randall Cunningham 81.47
Boomer Esiason 81.06
Warren Moon 80.90


or if you prefer a more modern example:

Daunte Culpepper 90.75
Chad Pennington 89.32
Tom Brady 88.36

There is simply no way get around the fact that passer rating doesn't come close to getting a full view of QB impact. No matter how many times someone like Kurt Warner holds the ball way too long, gets sacked and fumbles, it will never tarnish his passer rating.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, overall, just disputing the use of Unitas/Blake.

Edit: Chad Pennington was one of the best QBs in the league before his arm got shredded to bits, and the same with Daunte before he only had one leg. Brady never really flourished for a couple years. Obviously now Brady is far better than those guys, but I think you'll find that both Culpepper and Pennington had years where they were far better than Brady.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pennington is still putting up big passer ratings. He is sitting at 121 right now. You don't need the big arm to do it.

Culpepper gets credit for his arm, but passer rating doesn't care at all that he is one of the the most prolific fumblers in NFL history. Kreig also gets a pass in this area.

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It also doesn't give Culpepper credit for 2500 rushing yards and 30 rushing TDs over his career, which ameliorates some of the hurt of those fumbles (of which only 34 have been lost over his career, so 30 rushing TD's and 34 lost fumbles, not exactly a wash but I doubt there are any QBs that have more rushing TDs than fumbles).

FWIW if you add in his rushing TDs and add in his fumbles as INTs and plug it into the QBR forumla you get 89.2 Not that this isn't obviously flawed but just to give some idea.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Neil Lomax 82.68
Dave Kreig 81.50
Randall Cunningham 81.47
Boomer Esiason 81.06
Warren Moon 80.90


or if you prefer a more modern example:

Daunte Culpepper 90.75
Chad Pennington 89.32
Tom Brady 88.36

There is simply no way get around the fact that passer rating doesn't come close to getting a full view of QB impact. No matter how many times someone like Kurt Warner holds the ball way too long, gets sacked and fumbles, it will never tarnish his passer rating.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, overall, just disputing the use of Unitas/Blake.

Edit: Chad Pennington was one of the best QBs in the league before his arm got shredded to bits, and the same with Daunte before he only had one leg. Brady never really flourished for a couple years. Obviously now Brady is far better than those guys, but I think you'll find that both Culpepper and Pennington had years where they were far better than Brady.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pennington is still putting up big passer ratings. He is sitting at 121 right now. You don't need the big arm to do it.

Culpepper gets credit for his arm, but passer rating doesn't care at all that he is one of the the most prolific fumblers in NFL history. Kreig also gets a pass in this area.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also doesn't give Culpepper credit for 2500 rushing yards and 30 rushing TDs over his career, which ameliorates some of the hurt of those fumbles (of which only 34 have been lost over his career, so 30 rushing TD's and 34 lost fumbles, not exactly a wash but I doubt there are any QBs that have more rushing TDs than fumbles).

FWIW if you add in his rushing TDs and add in his fumbles as INTs and plug it into the QBR forumla you get 89.2 Not that this isn't obviously flawed but just to give some idea.

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Before we go any further with fumbles, it has to be pointed out that QBs take the statistical blame for all exchange fumbles. Culpepper isn't solely responsible for all his fumbles but every other QB also gets the same shaft when their Center or RB botches a snap or handoff. Culpepper is just off the charts, he has almost a 1:1 ratio of fumbles to games played.

As far as rushing TDs/fumbles lost, Peyton Manning has 13 career rushing TDs and 15 career fumbles lost. Its just another of the million little things that makes Manning so great.