Basic River Value Question

[StellarWind]

Hero is Cutoff with AKs.

UTG (55/5 passive postflop) limps, Hero raises, Button (60/20 typical postflop) calls, UTG calls. Three players and 7.5 SB to the flop.

Flop is 322 2-suited none for me. I bet and both call. 5.25 BB to the turn.

Turn is off 7. I bet and only UTG calls. 7.25 BB to the river.

River is a third 2. UTG checks and Hero ???

[acehole60]

I bet this one, but his WTSD could convince me otherwise.

[mvoss]

If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.

[NinaWilliams]

I bet it. So many aces he can have and even kings compared to pairs.

[johnnyrocket]

[ QUOTE ]
If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea this is definitely the right idea, do u have WTSD for us?

[Tryptamean]

seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


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so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[Tryptamean]

if he doesnt pay off with Kx, its a really easy check

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


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so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I give more A high than to pairs based on how he played this. I also think AJ and AQ are possible.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up...

assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec

Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o }


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so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

basic problem with this stove is that he donks many of the 7x hands on the turn. i think. actually i really don't know what his range is on any street. my sample in this situation is so small. usually he has the deuce and i'm done on the turn anyhow. or i make a -1.999 bb calldown just to make sure.

[waffle]

I think he will show up with a pair a surprising amount of the time. We have a read that he is passive pre and post - this means that he is pretty likely to play a hand like 99 like this.

I used this range as an estimate of what he will _call_ a river bet with:



If this is the case, he has 84 combos you beat and 120 combos you lose to.

84: AJ(12) AT(12) A9(12) A8(12) A6(12) A5(12) A4(12)
120: A7(9) A3(9) A2(3) K7(9) Q7(12) JJ(6) J7(12) TT(6) T7(3) 99(6) 97(3) 88(6) 87(12) 77(3) 66(6) 55(6) 44(6) 33(3)

So check.