Underpair, protected pot, etc

shadow. · #1 08-28-2006, 12:32 AM

mmbt0ne is sweating and doesn't like it.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, Button calls.

Catt · #2 08-28-2006, 01:09 AM

I would rather lead flop or check-and-see (probably check-calling but sometimes check folding; in those cases where I check-call, I'd likely be donking or C/R turn on favorable card). The flop screams draw for someone running a C/R and by C/Ring you're (1) unlikely to get anyone to fold a hand you'd like to fold offering the odds you are -- and the hands you don't want to fold are pretty few and far inbetween, and (2) making the pot large enough to make turn peels not only attractive to the average donk but also correct for a huge range of hands. With the pfr to your immediate left, and assuming you're leading the turn in most cases, you've presented Button with an opportunity to call closing the turn action getting like 9:1 unless UTG raises (and if UTG raises, you've got to consider that you're way behind). I'd really rather lead the flop in a hand like this absent knowing something particular about UTG's play. With a hand like this on a flop like this, I think you need to prioritize getting players to fold incorrectly (if they knew your actual hand) or at the very least protecting your hand by offering poor odds for a call from those hands that could call absent some action on your part -- your flop line works against both these potential objectives, both on the flop and on later streets.

Nate tha\\\' Great · #3 08-28-2006, 01:23 AM

Like Catt said, your hand looks too much like a draw on this particular board. In fact, if I'm UTG I'll occasionally 3-bet here with something like AK or J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

StellarWind · #4 08-28-2006, 03:16 AM

Against most opponents I would let this go on the flop. This is only a 5-handed pot so the eight and nine are strongly in the PFR's range. They are also promising cards for a coldcaller who just elected to call the flop in front of two people. Most of the time you are behind at least one opponent with two outs that might not be good and a trashy backdoor.

But let's look on the bright side. Maybe you are ahead and Villains between them only have 3-4 overcards and a pat draw or two for their flop plays. Even when you have the current best hand I doubt you average 50% pot equity.

Of course all of this is very player-dependent and some reads could influence me to play on. I'd especially like to know what Button is supposed to have.

There is another issue to address. You are out-of-position with a very sensitive hand. If you don't have any reads how are you going to know what to do on the turn and river? That's a good reason to err on the side of not getting involved.

If I wanted to play on I would peel the flop and decide after I saw the turn. Against some opponents betting a safe turn and watching their reaction will work. Another idea that works against many players is simply to check and expect a free card if you have the best hand. Assume that if the PFR bets again it means he has something. Similarly if the passive-acting button chooses to reopen instead of letting the turn check through that's probably a pair or better and you don't beat many pairs he might have.

Of course if you do get the free card you'll wish you had bet, but the occasions when this happens will be outweighed by all the times you get away cheaply from a disaster. If you can't play this weak hand with a light touch you can't play it at all. Anyway the missed bet might come back as curiosity calls on the river.

Fianchetto · #5 08-28-2006, 01:37 PM

I don't see a good reason to continue on this flop, but if I did continue w/ the hand I would call, not checkraise.