100 PL cap - bluffing made straight

roggles · #1 10-12-2007, 06:39 PM

Villain is pretty bad, and has been drawing to really weak draws. Straights on flush boards, Q high flush and other things. I'm fairly sure BB had a set. He thought for a very long time before folding. I am not sure what CO has at all, but by betting I am obviously hoping it is something he might fold. Do you think this $17 bet into a $55 pot will make him fold often enough to be worth it? Note that I can't bet more since it's cap.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) roggles is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, roggles calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $5, 2 folds, CO calls, roggles calls, SB folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($21, 3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, roggles bets $17, BB folds, CO calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($55, 2 players)
CO checks, roggles bets $17 ???

Praetor · #2 10-12-2007, 07:43 PM

i would just check

thisnamedoesntfi · #3 10-12-2007, 08:44 PM

I don't think it's bad, you probably need to bet to win. Am I right in thinking if he folds 40% of the time this play is +EV?

bet124 · #4 10-12-2007, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's bad, you probably need to bet to win. Am I right in thinking if he folds 40% of the time this play is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]
if he fold 1 out of 4 times, this play is +EV

Elrazor · #5 10-13-2007, 03:41 AM

if he has been drawing then your hand has showdown value, if he hasnt i see him calling with 2p or better if hes as bad as you say. i check behind as $17 is too small a bluff

Dschmeidreu · #6 10-13-2007, 05:17 AM

Definately either a check behind or a larger bet, sice you have some showdown value probably a check behind, since hes probably snap calling any 2 pair he has.

Burdzthewurd · #7 10-13-2007, 05:37 AM

I'd rather raise the flop than bluff the turn here. As played, need to bet at least $35ish to pull this off enough of the time IMO, unless your opponent is very smart and has seen you make small bets with big hands before.

RoundTower · #8 10-13-2007, 05:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's bad, you probably need to bet to win. Am I right in thinking if he folds 40% of the time this play is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]
if he folds a better hand 1 out of 4 times, this play is +EV

[/ QUOTE ]

DonCologne · #9 10-13-2007, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's bad, you probably need to bet to win. Am I right in thinking if he folds 40% of the time this play is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero invest here 17$ to win 55$. His EV is:

x*55$ - (1-x)*17$ with x the time villain folds and 1-x the time villain calls.

Hero plays +-EV:

x*55$ - (1-x)*17$ = 0
x*(55$+17$) = 17$
x = 17$/(55$+17$) = 23,61%

So villain must fold at least in 23,61% of the time, to make this bet +EV.

Chaoslord · #10 10-13-2007, 11:28 AM

i dont think theres any value in betting here. the board hasnt changed (T8 was the nuts before and after the river) if he called with some 2 pair thinking he was good, then hes gonna call again, if he had some sort of draw your top pair should be enough to take it.
of course theres a small chance he had a flush draw and somehow made 2 pair with the jack accidently, but thats not very likely imo