Partial hedging now that PIT MIA line has changed

[dc_publius]

This is for all of us who thought they had enough time to deposit more funds into Neteller but the line changed in the meantime and got stuck without a hedge. What are our options?

Microbob's strategy described below. There is also halftime hedging if anyone can fill us in. What is everyone doing? Let it ride? And maybe if PIT covers the spread at halftime lockin profit doing halftime hedge?


Microbob:
Or you can try to use the SIA $250 bonus as a 'partial' hedge. I'm getting some of the other part of the $500 wagering-requirement out of the way by just betting $10 each on various other games.


It might be something like this:

PIT -5 for $1100 to win $1000
MIA +1 for $300 to win $270

If PIT wins by 6 or more:
+$1000 on PIT, -$300 on MIA, +$250 bonus = +$1050

If PIT wins by 2-5 pts:
refund on PIT, -$270 on MIA, +$250 bonus = -$20

If PIT wins by exactly 1:
refund on PIT, refund on MIA, +$250 bonus = +$250

If PIT wins by 1 or if MIA wins:
refund on PIT, +$270 on MIA, +$250 bonus = +$520

[Ron Burgundy]

Here's a better strategy: don't hedge. You'll increase EV and won't have to worry about scraping together more money to deposit somewhere else.

[mcslu]

You also have the opportunity to place teaser bet of course.

[MicroBob]

I may very well not be employing this strategy.

1 - I still like PIT in this game. So putting any money on MIA is even MORE -EV in my view.

2 - I recently read that the $250 bonus at SIA via CCU is unavailable until Oct 20. I didn't know this before.
For some reason this changes my perspective somewhat.
I may cash-out most out of SIA and just make a bunch of little bets to complete the bonus requirement there (not hard).


3 - I may be able to find a friend who is willing to have an account set up for something like this. I might hedge that straight-up, with the possibility of a really big score if PIT wins by 6 or more.


Basically, those of us who are in at -5 don't have as many options as we might like.
But we still have a reasonable chance (35%, perhaps higher) of winning the whole thing imo.

[Rhett]

I don't see the bet anymore. Is it gone?

[MicroBob]

indeed, it looks like the PIT/MIA game is off the board at Mansion currently.

Might just be a temporary line readjustment.
Or it might signal the end of the promo. (please note that I said MIGHT...so don't freak).

[Roswell]

I just chatted with support. They said it's gone.

[umdpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
I just chatted with support. They said it's gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

how long do you have to wait on the chat window for somebody to come? i have had this stupid thing open 10 min now.

[WarDekar]

NOOOOOO Do NOT HEDGE if you got Pitt at -4.5 or -5. Under NO CIRCUMSTANCE should you do that!

[FCBLComish]

What about a teaser?