Wong Teasers, Week 4

[Schwatt]

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This is thread is 100% awful.


1) BW teasers are BS. I will galdly go toe to toe with Daliman on them and expect him to admit his getting to worse out of the picks we made last year.
2) The true line is all that matters for picks. It doesn't matter is juice is -80000 or +10000. If you are betting a teaser look at the true line FFS. Its like a bunch of illiterate idiots read SSB. Or didn't...

[censored] fek.

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Thremp, about teasing +3 to +9: page 158, paragraph 4

[sirio11]

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I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

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Brendan,

I think what Thremp is trying to say it's that the calculations made by Wong in his book were using the closing lines, so we can't assume other lines will work as well, it may be the case, but I haven't read about it. I remember Daliman mentioned the difference was minimal though

[Schwatt]

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[ QUOTE ]
I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brendan,

I think what Thremp is trying to say it's that the calculations made by Wong in his book were using the closing lines, so we can't assume other lines will work as well, it may be the case, but I haven't read about it. I remember Daliman mentioned the difference was minimal though

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread the chapter again, and nowhere did I find the statement "use closing lines" or "let the lines sharpen".

If I am wrong, someone please point me to the page.

[kdog]

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I teased on the 25th Detroit w/ the Patriots and got +8.5 and -2 on 5Dimes . Only one I touched so far. Looks like both are at that still on 5Dimes.


Showing a true Pinny line of the Pats -7 and the Lions +2.5 so I am happy with that Wong so far.



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You got f'd for a full point. Why would you be happy with this?

[ImStillBen]

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I don't think my bankroll can handle every permutation(I'm already on all possible permutation of NE/MIN/SF).


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This is absolutely preposterous.

[DeezNuts]

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I don't think my bankroll can handle every permutation(I'm already on all possible permutation of NE/MIN/SF).


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This is absolutely preposterous.

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I was not saying I'll outbet my bankroll, just that I don't feel comfortable with 30%+(if the other 2-3 games are Wongable) of my bankroll on any given weekend.

I would love to hear why it is preposterous(no sarcasm).

[brendanb438]

KDog I am happy because I would still play the Pats -7 with the Lions +8.5 if I had to. Call my confident in the play. Watch Cincy now blowout the Pats but hey shiat happens.

The difference between -2 and -1 is about 1.5% in game wins I believe so not a huge deal.

[knicknut]

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I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

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I do too but I move it to the point where it's -105/-105. Pinny will put up lines a point or 1.5 off the true line and offer plus odds so that they're not Wongable.

So, my initial question: How + can the true line's odds get on +2.5 or -7.5 and have the Wong still be +EV?

[hogua]

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have been following the Pinny line as my true line. Do you guys also do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Brendan,

I think what Thremp is trying to say it's that the calculations made by Wong in his book were using the closing lines, so we can't assume other lines will work as well, it may be the case, but I haven't read about it. I remember Daliman mentioned the difference was minimal though

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread the chapter again, and nowhere did I find the statement "use closing lines" or "let the lines sharpen".

If I am wrong, someone please point me to the page.

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The only reason to "wait for the line to sharpen" on these is to reduce variance - unless, of course, you are able to predict line movements. If you can do that, you should only wait "for the line to sharpen" when the line will move in your favor.

Just bet early and bet often. If you have a big enough roll (and use a unit size the "fits" with your roll, and edge) little bit of variance isn't going to kill you.

[Thremp]

Gaining the 8/9 are virtually worthless. Losing half the 3 is a disaster of hooge proportions.